ABD Hazine\u2019sinin 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil (2-year note) ihalesinde getiri (yield) %3,812 oldu. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki ihaledeki %3,936\u2019l\u0131k getiriye g\u00f6re geriledi.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fim, 0,124 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda 12,4 baz puan (faiz oranlar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani 0,01) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f demek.<\/p>\n
2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi getirisindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasan\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Federal Reserve \/ Fed) yak\u0131nda faiz indirece\u011fini art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini (pivot: s\u0131k\u0131 politikadan gev\u015femeye d\u00f6nmesi) \u00f6nceden yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na (short-term debt: k\u0131sa vadeli tahviller\/bonolar) yo\u011fun al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n net bir i\u015fareti. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu beklentiyi son ekonomik veriler de destekliyor. Mart 2026 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (core CPI: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi enflasyonun %2,7\u2019ye indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca son istihdam raporunda i\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 145 bine yava\u015flad\u0131. Bu veriler, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmek (easing policy: faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 rahatlatmak) i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu gerek\u00e7eyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, getirilerin d\u00fc\u015fmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlanmak anlam\u0131na gelir. 2 ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (futures contracts: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faizler d\u00fc\u015ferken tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselir. Ayr\u0131ca SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131), \u00f6zellikle al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) sat\u0131n almak, yakla\u015fan faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne do\u011frudan pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisi genellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 hisseler i\u00e7in destekleyicidir. Bu e\u011filime t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle maruz kalmak i\u00e7in Nasdaq 100 endeksinde (NDX) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131nabilir. Bu strateji, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesinin teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme sekt\u00f6rlerinin de\u011ferlemelerini (valuation: \u015firketlerin piyasa de\u011ferini belirleyen \u00e7arpanlar) art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (leveraged: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon) bir bahis sunar.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faiz indirim beklentisi, ABD dolar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Daha zay\u0131f dolardan faydalanan opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Euro\u2019da al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak veya dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Japon Yeni\u2019nde sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (sell puts: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse al\u0131c\u0131ya sat\u0131n alma y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011furan i\u015flem). Bu i\u015flemler, ABD\u2019nin faiz avantaj\u0131 azald\u0131k\u00e7a sermayenin ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kayabilece\u011fi beklentisine dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasalar kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyondan endi\u015feliydi ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri o y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %4,4\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ortam, bu beklentinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ihale sonucu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri beklenen g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (dovish pivot: faiz indirimi yanl\u0131s\u0131, daha yumu\u015fak para politikas\u0131) teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik sinyal: ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ihale getirisi %3,812\u2019ye inerek 12,4 bp d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasalar Fed\u2019den yak\u0131n faiz indirimi bekliyor; enflasyon %2,7, istihdam 145 bin. Dolar bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45587\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}