USD\/JPY, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi pozisyon al\u0131rken 159,30 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasa, BoJ\u2019nin politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya y\u00f6n veren ana faizi) %0,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda ileride ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d h\u00e2le getirme) sinyali vermesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Yen bu beklentilerle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Ancak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile politika fark\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da, g\u00fcvenli liman (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) talebiyle Dolar\u2019a al\u0131m\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 159,29 civar\u0131nda. 159,27 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki deste\u011fin ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA: fiyatlar\u0131n belirli bir d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131) 159,21 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 159,30 civar\u0131nda, ayr\u0131ca 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA 159,47\u2019de.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI-14: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k 47 ve momentumun (fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) n\u00f6tr oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Ek destek 159,20\u2019de izleniyor; 159,10 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma (fiyat\u0131n seviyenin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 inmesi) daha derin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik analiz b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda 160,00 \u00fcst\u00fcne atak k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 oldu ve Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Yen al\u0131m\u0131yla m\u00fcdahalesini tetikledi; bu, 2022 ve 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen ad\u0131mlara benzerdi. Hamle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc, pariteyi sert \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve resm\u00ee uyar\u0131lar\u0131n piyasada etkili oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Bu nedenle, tarih\u00ee zirvelere yak\u0131n seviyelerde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u201cYen aleyhine\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131 yeniden kurma konusunda temkinliyiz.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma), m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6neminde %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu hafta itibar\u0131yla 3 ayl\u0131k vadede (kontrat\u0131n s\u00fcresi) daha sakin %8-9 band\u0131na indi. Bu daha sakin ortam, \u201cstrangle\u201d veya \u201cstraddle\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir: Straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu), strangle (benzer ama farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131) satarak prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan al\u0131nan gelir) toplamak ve parite yataya d\u00f6nerken kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n tek y\u00f6ne sert bahisleri yerini daha \u00e7ok bant i\u00e7i (range-bound: belirli aral\u0131kta gidip gelme) i\u015flemlere b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 bu s\u0131n\u0131rlar \u00fczerinden kurgulayabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cknock-out opsiyon\u201d (belirli bir seviyeye de\u011fince devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalan opsiyon) kullanarak, belirlenmi\u015f kanal i\u00e7inde i\u015flem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azaltmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler BoJ\u2019da: USD\/JPY 159,30\u2019da; faiz %0,75 beklentisi ve olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali yeni y\u00f6n ar\u0131yor. Fed fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Teknikte 159,27 destek, RSI n\u00f6tr; opsiyonda volatilite d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45584"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45584\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}