Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in geriledi. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.730 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.669 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,84 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak ve sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye yeni bir \u00f6neri iletti; n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ise sonraya b\u0131rakmay\u0131 teklif etti. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, temsilciler Jared Kushner ve Steve Witkoff\u2019un planlanan \u0130slamabad ziyaretini iptal ederek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok \u015fey teklif etti\u011fini ama yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,40 civar\u0131nda, %0,13 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi; Washington ise Axios haberine yan\u0131t vermemi\u015fti. Piyasalar, Tahran\u2019\u0131n diplomatik temaslar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine dair her i\u015fareti izliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, zay\u0131f Dolardan destek bulamad\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hafta ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde yap\u0131lacak Fed, ECB, BoE ve BoJ toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde faiz beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (Fed: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131; ECB: Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131; BoE: \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131; BoJ: Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131.) Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde risk yaratmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu kurumlar\u0131n faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Grafikte fiyat, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 4.257 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; ancak 100 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretti. RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; 50 alt\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti) 43 civar\u0131nda, ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er; 20 civar\u0131 zay\u0131f trend) 20 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 4.746, ard\u0131ndan 4.863; destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n geldi\u011fi seviye) 4.650-4.600, ard\u0131ndan 4.257.<\/p>\n
2025 sonunda gerilimin azalmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde geri \u00e7ekti. Sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) daha sonra dengelendi ve Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla 85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Enerji maliyetlerindeki bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, son iki \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel enflasyonun yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni oldu.<\/p>\n
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2025\u2019teki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131. Son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8\u2019e i\u015faret ederek, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemindeki %5 seviyelerinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na indi. Bu durum, Fed ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (daha y\u00fcksek faiz isteyen) duru\u015ftan daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015fa kaymas\u0131na alan a\u00e7t\u0131. Piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131, y\u0131l bitmeden Fed\u2019den en az iki faiz indirimi bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, alt\u0131n\u0131 yeni zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; metal \u015fu anda 5.100 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken ABD Dolar Endeksi 91,50\u2019ye zay\u0131flad\u0131. Alt\u0131nda ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131k jeopolitik korku de\u011fil, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin (faizlerin) d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, de\u011ferli metalde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, bu y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanman\u0131n do\u011frudan yolu olarak al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Haziran veya Temmuz vadeli 5.250 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call\u2019lar, alt\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentisiyle y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse \u201ckald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131\u201d (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon etkisi) bir getiri potansiyeli sunar. Bu stratejide risk, \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, \u015fimdilik k\u00e2rda olmayan) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) satmak gelir yaratabilir. Haziran vadeli 4.900 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle prim toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, hem zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin erimesi) hem de alt\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destekten faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Trend yukar\u0131 olsa da risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in kritik seviyeleri izlemek gerekir. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, \u015fu anda 5.020 dolar civar\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli bir destek konumunda. Bu b\u00f6lgenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015fte duraksamaya i\u015faret edebilir ve t\u00fcrev (opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirme sinyali olur.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flemlere ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz geri \u00e7ekilme: Dolar zay\u0131f olsa da ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 XAU\/USD\u2019yi 4.669 dolara (-%0,84) itti. Piyasa diplomasi ve kritik merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na odaklan\u0131rken, faiz indirimi beklentileri y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}