Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler sert \u015fekilde geriledi. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda piyasalar yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 baz puan (bps, faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik ad\u0131m) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlarken, bu beklenti neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra indi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n mart enflasyon verileri man\u015fet (genel) ve \u00e7ekirdek (enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) \u00fclke geneli T\u00dcFE\u2019de (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu gev\u015fek kal\u0131yor ve politika faizi reel (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin bi\u00e7imde negatif.<\/p>\n
BoJ, faiz karar\u0131na e\u015flik edecek \u015fekilde g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminlerini yay\u0131mlayacak. \u00d6nceki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ekirdek \u00fclke geneli T\u00dcFE\u2019de %1,9 ve 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in %2,0 seviyesindeydi; yeni tahminler %2,0\u2019lik hedefin (enflasyon hedefi) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Temkinli bir BoJ ile daha \u015fahin (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rma e\u011filiminde) bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. 160 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, m\u00fcdahale riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir b\u00f6lge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililer son d\u00f6nemde olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleye ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. Ocak ay\u0131nda USD\/JPY seviyelerine y\u00f6nelik ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u201ckontrol\u201d ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da 160 \u00fczerindeki sat\u0131\u015f iste\u011finin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasa ileti\u015fiminde haziranda bir faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 sinyali \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Senaryolardan biri, haziranda faizin 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %1,00\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in politika faizi %4,75\u2019te kal\u0131rken BoJ\u2019ninki s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 yeni bask\u0131l\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 164,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye piyasalar\u0131 resm\u00ee ad\u0131m (m\u00fcdahale) ihtimali konusunda \u00e7ok tedirgin ediyor. S\u00fcregelen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, yendeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ana nedeni olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ zor bir konumda. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n mart 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son ulusal \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2,9 ile hedefin belirgin \u00fczerinde geldi. Ba\u015fkan Ueda, ileride faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etme ihtiyac\u0131yla piyasalar\u0131 sarsma riskini dengelemek zorunda. Bu belirsizlik, USD\/JPY\u2019de opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n sert hareket etme beklentisi) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri g\u00fcndemde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Kur 158 ve 160 seviyelerini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2024 sonu ve 2025 ortas\u0131nda birden fazla m\u00fcdahale yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekir. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 spek\u00fclatif (k\u0131sa vadeli, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareket yaratan) hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu nedenle USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar temkinle ta\u015f\u0131nmal\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131ndan uzak, yani \u015fimdilik k\u00e2rs\u0131z) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) alarak hedge (korunma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
\u201cCarry trade\u201d (faiz fark\u0131 i\u015flemi: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiri aramak; burada ucuz yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak) h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve parite \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrekli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Ancak bu i\u015flemin sert bi\u00e7imde tersine d\u00f6nme riski y\u00fcksek; \u00f6zellikle yakla\u015fan ABD verileri beklenmedik bir zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ederse. USD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruyan opsiyonlar\u0131n primi (opsiyon bedeli) de bu artan piyasa endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ\u2019un nisan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131: Enflasyon s\u00fcrprizine ra\u011fmen politika gev\u015fek, USD\/JPY 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnde m\u00fcdahale alarm\u0131 veriyor. Haziranda 25 bp art\u0131\u015f sinyali \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45576\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}