Rabobank, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) gecelik politika faizini (bankalar\u0131n birbirine bir g\u00fcn vadeyle uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel faiz) y\u0131l sonuna kadar %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. 29 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nde de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fand\u0131; iki yeni ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 atand\u0131. Kurum d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan atanan ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 pozisyonu ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 bo\u015f.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon, enerji kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6ncesinde hedefe yak\u0131n seyrediyordu. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden h\u0131zlanma riskini y\u00fckseltti. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oynak, verimlilik (ayn\u0131 kaynakla daha fazla \u00fcretim) zay\u0131f; buna ra\u011fmen para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131n) \u015fimdilik beklemede kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde hanehalk\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa iyile\u015fti. Harcama planlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalsa da ticaret gerilimleri azald\u0131k\u00e7a olumsuzluk bir miktar geriledi. Yine de \u00f6zellikle yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmden etkilenen sekt\u00f6rlerde i\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu ve i\u015f g\u00fcvencesi kayg\u0131s\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon beklentileri (yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmini) g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyrederken, uzun vadeli beklentiler (ileriki y\u0131llara dair tahmin) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi. Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 anketler daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve daha y\u00fcksek fiyat beklentisine i\u015faret etti; bu da baz\u0131 ki\u015filerin seyahat ve b\u00fcy\u00fck harcamalar\u0131 ertelemesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
BoC\u2019nin 29 Nisan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Banka, son enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6rerek b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edebilir; art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131na (\u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen arz\/kaynak daralmas\u0131 nedeniyle enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama) ba\u011flayabilir. Temel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u015fu a\u015famada faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (faiz y\u00fckseltimini) destekleyecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Kanada \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun ge\u00e7en haftaki verilerine g\u00f6re mart enflasyonu %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana nedeni, 2025\u2019teki arz aksamalar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k %15 y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k son GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verisi \u015fubat ay\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yaln\u0131zca %0,1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, Banka\u2019n\u0131n bu t\u00fcr maliyet kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmak yerine b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Martta yaln\u0131zca 5 bin yeni istihdam yarat\u0131ld\u0131. Bu, 2025\u2019teki sava\u015f sonras\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u015f g\u00fcvencesi endi\u015feleriyle uyumlu. \u00d6zellikle yapay zek\u00e2 etkisine a\u00e7\u0131k sekt\u00f6rlerde belirgin bir yumu\u015fama var ve bu durum beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Conference Board t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi de yak\u0131n zamanda 85,2\u2019ye geriledi; bu da hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine (kredi faizlerine) haz\u0131r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (de\u011feri faiz, kur gibi bir ba\u015fka varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 kontratlarla i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, k\u0131sa vadede faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde konumlanmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Kanada tahvil piyasas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan (sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n az olmas\u0131ndan) fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. S\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, bu ihtimale kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan pozisyonlar cazip olmayabilir.<\/p>\n
Faizin sabit kalmas\u0131, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 (loonie) \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutabilir. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n\/s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) sinyaller vermesiyle iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131labilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar opsiyonlarla CAD\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131na, USD\/CAD kurunun (1 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 Kanada dolar\u0131 etti\u011fi) y\u00fckselmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rabobank\u2019tan BoC i\u00e7in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d mesaj\u0131: Politika faizi y\u0131l sonuna kadar %2,25\u2019te sabit, 29 Nisan\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok. Enerji enflasyonu risk, b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f; CAD bask\u0131da, USD\/CAD yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45575\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}