Kanada Dolar\u0131, hafta sonu ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Belirsiz risk ortam\u0131na ra\u011fmen di\u011fer emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 (fiyat\u0131 petrol, metal gibi emtialara duyarl\u0131) para birimleriyle birlikte hareket etti. USD\/CAD, Mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi ve Nisan ay\u0131nda s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen mevsimsel (takvim etkisiyle tekrarlayan) deseni s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD, 1,3531 seviyesindeki \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d (modellemelerle hesaplanan denge seviyesi) tahmininin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Mart sonu ve Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli\u201d (kurun temellere g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ise zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Teknik analizde (grafik ve fiyat seviyelerine dayal\u0131 analiz) ge\u00e7en hafta k\u0131sa bir duraklaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3625 deste\u011finin (al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi kritik seviye) alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma (seviyenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ge\u00e7ilmesi) vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli grafik formasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/CAD\u2019de daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Bir sonraki olas\u0131 hareket olarak 1,3520\/25 band\u0131ndaki (aral\u0131k) Mart ba\u015f\u0131 diplerinin yeniden test edilmesi (fiyat\u0131n ayn\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye tekrar gelmesi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen Nisan ay\u0131na \u00f6zg\u00fc g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu hareket, USD\/CAD paritesini 1,3625\u2019teki kritik destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na itti. K\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filim (trend), ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki canl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle destekleniyor. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc (ABD referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 87 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2025 sonundan beri ilk kez bu seviyeyi a\u015ft\u0131. Petroldeki pozitif ivme (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi), Kanada dolar\u0131na temel tarafta (makro\/ekonomik nedenler) destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev (vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon gibi) i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in modellerine bu d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fi dahil etmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/CAD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu, belirli bir vadede belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r. Bu pozisyonlar, 1,3520\/25 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. May\u0131s sonu veya Haziran vadeli (pozisyonun sona erece\u011fi tarih) opsiyonlar, beklenen hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in uygun bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta Kanada T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9 ile beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu durum, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) faiz konusunda \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden bekleme) tutumunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. ABD\u2019de ise son i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fsiz kalanlar\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 resmi ba\u015fvurular) belirgin artt\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda bir miktar zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret etti. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde ad\u0131m atmas\u0131) USD\/CAD i\u00e7in temel a\u00e7\u0131dan olumsuz.<\/p>\n
Gelir elde etmek isteyen veya daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut kura g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha uzakta olan ve hemen kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamayan) USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri satmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir strateji. Call spread satmak, bir call sat\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call alarak (koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131) riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir opsiyon yap\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Parite, se\u00e7ilen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa vade sonunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flanabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmenin azalmas\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 CAD\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7 verdi: USD\/CAD Mart\u2019tan beri dipte. 1,3625 deste\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, hedef 1,3520\/25. BoC bekle-g\u00f6r, ABD\u2019de zay\u0131f veriler. Put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45574\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}