{"id":45570,"date":"2026-04-27T20:55:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T20:55:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnyden-bob-savage-iran-hurmuzu-yeniden-acmak-ve-savasi-bitirmek-icin-abdye-anlasma-teklif-etti-nukleer-gorusmeler-ertelendi\/"},"modified":"2026-04-27T20:55:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T20:55:05","slug":"bnyden-bob-savage-iran-hurmuzu-yeniden-acmak-ve-savasi-bitirmek-icin-abdye-anlasma-teklif-etti-nukleer-gorusmeler-ertelendi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnyden-bob-savage-iran-hurmuzu-yeniden-acmak-ve-savasi-bitirmek-icin-abdye-anlasma-teklif-etti-nukleer-gorusmeler-ertelendi\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Bob Savage: \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fc yeniden a\u00e7mak ve sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye anla\u015fma teklif etti; n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ertelendi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ran, Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye bir anla\u015fma \u00f6nerdi. \u00d6neri \u00f6nce H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ve sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine odaklan\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019da n\u00fckleer konuda taviz verilmesine y\u00f6nelik i\u00e7 anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler daha sonraki bir a\u015famaya b\u0131rak\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Arak\u00e7i Pakistan ve Umman\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapt\u0131; Moskova\u2019da da yeni temaslar bekleniyor. ABD hen\u00fcz \u00f6neriye yan\u0131t vermedi.<\/p>\n

Piyasa G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Diplomatik Takvim<\/h3>\n

Plana g\u00f6re \u00f6nce ABD\u2019nin ablukas\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131lacak. Bu durum, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uranyum stoklar\u0131 (n\u00fckleer yak\u0131t i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan, zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum birikimi) ve zenginle\u015ftirmeyi ask\u0131ya alma (uranyumun enerji ya da silah i\u00e7in daha yo\u011fun h\u00e2le getirilmesini ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurma) \u00fczerinden kurdu\u011fu pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azaltabilir.<\/p>\n

Enerji arz\u0131ndaki kesinti s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e petrol fiyat tahminleri y\u00fckseliyor. Brent\u2019in (Kuzey Denizi petrol\u00fc referans fiyat\u0131) 2026 sonuna kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 giderek \u201cpiyasa ortak beklentisi\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nerisiyle petrol fiyat\u0131na eklenen y\u00fcksek jeopolitik risk primi (siyasi gerilim nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra bedel) ya kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le gelebilir ya da h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde geri \u00e7ekilebilir. ABD\u2019nin yan\u0131t vermemesi belirsizli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. \u015eimdilik Brent\u2019in 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi korunuyor; ancak bu yeni diplomatik kanal fiyatlar i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Haziran vadeli Brent kontratlar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) 92,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasa 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan ablukadan kaynakl\u0131 kesintinin s\u00fcrece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu kesinti, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varilin kolay ge\u00e7i\u015fini fiilen durdurdu; bu \u201carz \u015foku\u201d (beklenmedik arz daralmas\u0131) 2022\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fgalinden sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert dalgalanmay\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Bu nedenle, y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini call opsiyonlar\u0131yla (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak de\u011ferlendirilebilir; b\u00f6ylece Trump y\u00f6netiminin h\u0131zl\u0131 anla\u015fma yerine n\u00fckleer pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na oynan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, s\u00fcrpriz bir ABD anla\u015fmas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, bu y\u00fczden daha ucuz) put opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) bir korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) olarak al\u0131nabilir. Bu strateji, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131nda ani bir \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe (daha yumu\u015fak ve uzla\u015fmac\u0131 tutum) kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc korur.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na Haz\u0131rl\u0131k<\/h3>\n

Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda y\u00fckselen ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) piyasada sert bir fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporunda (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) stoklar\u0131n beklentiden fazla d\u00fc\u015fmesi (stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi: depolardaki petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) da arz s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (piyasada petrol\u00fcn nispeten az bulunmas\u0131) teyit ediyor. Washington veya Tahran\u2019dan gelecek resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; petrol\u00fcn bir sonraki y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc esas olarak bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar belirleyecek. Net bir karar, fiyat\u0131 mevcut i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n gidip geldi\u011fi aral\u0131k) belirgin \u015fekilde d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Son dakika: \u0130ran, Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucularla ABD\u2019ye \u201c\u00f6nce H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131ls\u0131n, sava\u015f bitsin\u201d teklifi sundu; n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131k erteleniyor. Piyasada Brent 92,5$, 90$ \u00fcst\u00fc beklentisi s\u00fcrerken s\u00fcrpriz anla\u015fma sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45570"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45570\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}