EUR\/GBP, Sterlin\u2019in Euro\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesiyle 0,8600\u20130,8800 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde geriledi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde zay\u0131flayan PMI verileri ve artan stagflasyon riski (b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131fken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019tan daha sa\u011flam veriler ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, piyasalarda \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma) yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Nisan Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI anketleri, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde zay\u0131flama ve imalatta (sanayi \u00fcretimi) daha dengeli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00f6sterdi. Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 2,8 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 47,4\u2019e inerken, imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 0,6 puan artarak 52,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (PMI: Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma, \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder.)<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi bile\u015fik PMI (hizmet ve imalat\u0131n toplam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) 2,1 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 48,6\u2019ya indi ve Kas\u0131m 2024\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana 3,3 puan gerileyen endekste, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bozuldu; bu bozulma, 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki enerji \u015fokundaki (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ekonomiye darbe vurmas\u0131) d\u00f6neme benzer bir h\u0131zda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Sterlin son haftada daha diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. Bu durum, parite ayn\u0131 bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rken EUR\/GBP \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. UK verileri, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda daha iyi bir ivmeye i\u015faret ederken enerji \u015fokunun etkisi \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesiyle BoE\u2019nin daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na do\u011fru kayd\u0131. UK 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisi (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan g\u00f6sterge) son dip seviyesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 baz puan y\u00fckseldi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bu art\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 baz puan, ABD\u2019de ise 10 baz puan\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde. (Baz puan: %0,01.)<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemki analize bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, UK ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomileri aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma (farkl\u0131 h\u0131zlarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon dinamikleri) daha zay\u0131f bir EUR\/GBP i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yordu. Bu e\u011filim b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u00fcrd\u00fc; parite 0,8600 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na indi ve 0,8450 civar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131. 2025\u2019te i\u015faret edilen temel nedenler\u2014zorlanan Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 UK\u2014genelde beklendi\u011fi gibi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131lki veriler ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. UK\u2019nin Mart 2026 enflasyon raporunda \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,2\u2019de kald\u0131. Bu, BoE\u2019yi \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) korumaya ve faiz indirimlerini geciktirmeye zorlad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin durgun seyretti\u011fi Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) \u015eubat 2026\u2019da d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, EUR\/GBP\u2019de daha yava\u015f da olsa a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmada de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar paritede sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; 0,8400 psikolojik seviyesinin (piyasada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan yuvarlak seviye) alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 (strike) ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek vadeleri hedefleyebilir. Bu strateji, UK ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 Sterlin lehine a\u00e7\u0131lmaya devam ederse do\u011frudan fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bu t\u00fcr belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek s\u00fcrebilir; Brexit oylamas\u0131 sonras\u0131ndaki 2016\u20132017 d\u00f6neminde de benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak olumsuz haberlerin \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n Euro fiyat\u0131na zaten yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini unutmamak gerekir. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan 2026 IFO \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u0130klimi endeksinde (\u015firket beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00fcven g\u00f6stergesi) s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin geride kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi riskine kar\u015f\u0131, do\u011frudan put almak yerine \u201cay\u0131 put spread\u201d daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Bu strateji, ayn\u0131 anda daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir; b\u00f6ylece i\u015flem maliyeti d\u00fc\u015fer. Parite beklenmedik \u015fekilde ters d\u00f6nerse sermayeyi daha iyi korurken, 0,8350 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yine kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/GBP\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI\u2019lar\u0131 zay\u0131flarken stagflasyon riski art\u0131yor. UK verileri ve inat\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon BoE\u2019yi \u015fahin tutuyor; 0,84 alt\u0131 putlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45568\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}