EUR\/USD, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l hazirandan bu yana korunan 1,1400\u20131,2000 band\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) orta b\u00f6lgesine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Parite, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131 telafi ettikten sonra 17 Nisan\u2019da 1,1849 ile zirve yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta EUR\/USD ve EUR\/GBP s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1,1700 ve 0,8700 seviyelerinin alt\u0131na indi. Bu hareket, Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI verilerinin (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; \u015firketlerin \u00fcretim ve talep e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren \u00f6nc\u00fc anket) zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ilerleme sa\u011flanmad\u0131; bu nedenle g\u00fczerg\u00e2h kapal\u0131 kal\u0131yor. Kapanman\u0131n uzamas\u0131, enerji fiyat \u015fokunun (enerji maliyetlerindeki ani art\u0131\u015f\u0131n) Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinde yarataca\u011f\u0131 tahribat\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131), Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo payla\u015ft\u0131: temel, olumsuz ve a\u011f\u0131r. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 temel ile olumsuz senaryo aras\u0131na yerle\u015ftirirken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz senaryodaki kadar y\u00fckselmedi\u011fini ve Avrupa do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n temel senaryonun alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin toplamda 50 baz puan (bps; faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,50\u2019lik toplam art\u0131\u015f) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ilk ad\u0131m\u0131n hazirana \u00f6telenmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, k\u0131sa vadede Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ile politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, daralan getiri farklar\u0131 (\u00fclkelerin tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) euroyu destekledi ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin, 2025\u2019te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi temkinli hareket etmesi ve ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 hazirana ertelemesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir sonraki ECB faiz indirimi beklentisini d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonuna \u00f6teledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faizi uzun s\u00fcre koruma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu politika fark\u0131, euro i\u00e7in zor bir tablo yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, EUR\/USD\u2019nin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131na ama a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131na uygun bir pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 2025\u2019e benziyor; ancak ABD\u2013Almanya getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n 160 baz puana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, euroya \u00f6nceki kadar destek vermiyor. 1,0950 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren sabit fiyat\u0131) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan artan belirsizlik, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite; fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) son haftalarda %6\u2019dan %7,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; fiyat\u0131n iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) almak, parite g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket yaparsa k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat! EUR\/USD 1,14\u20131,20 band\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc; zay\u0131f PMI ve enerji \u015foku bask\u0131 kuruyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski s\u00fcrerken ECB\u2019nin hazirana ertelenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131p a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45562\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}