GBP\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3565 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,23 y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artmas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu hareket, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 ve ABD ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmeyi i\u00e7eren bir \u00f6neri sundu\u011funa dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen, daha az riskli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klar) pozisyonlar\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131yla geriledi. G\u00f6zler ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) karar\u0131nda. Faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de piyasalar, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli. Politika faizinin %3,75\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u201c\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon\u201d (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) da bir miktar yumu\u015fad\u0131; oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 artt\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki %3,2 seviyesinden geriledi.<\/p>\n
Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurul) i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ba\u015f Ekonomist Huw Pill, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 ko\u015fullara (daha y\u00fcksek faiz ve daha s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 finansal \u015fartlar) ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu belirtirken, Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey son \u015foklara ra\u011fmen hemen bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon nedeniyle faiz beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesi) destek buldu. Ancak \u0130ngiltere\u2019de artan i\u00e7 siyasi riskler, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Merkez bankas\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesi (gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck mesajlar) ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler ana belirleyiciler olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme sayesinde GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131. Paritede \u201cz\u0131mni volatilite\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k) belirgin \u015fekilde artt\u0131; 1 ay vadeli opsiyonlar (belirli s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketleri fiyatl\u0131yor ve %7\u2019den %9,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sakin seyrin s\u00fcrmesinden ziyade \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lma\u201d (fiyat\u0131n dar banttan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete ge\u00e7mesi) bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, kurul i\u00e7indeki belirgin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Mart\u2019taki %3,1 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 olsa da, \u015eubat 2026 \u201cman\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u201dnin (t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren genel enflasyon) %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz isteyen) \u00fcyeler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alma) gibi opsiyon stratejilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin dolar taraf\u0131nda da Fed\u2019in faizi sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde yarat\u0131lan i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131) verisi 215 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama enflasyonu h\u0131zland\u0131rmayan bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu destekliyor. Bu tabloda, Fed \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc beklenenden daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n, daha yumu\u015fak) mesajlar vermezse, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelen olumlu jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, sterlin gibi riskli varl\u0131klara ge\u00e7ici destek veriyor. Ancak bunun, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de artan i\u00e7 siyasi risklerin olas\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 ile dengelenmesi gerekiyor. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD\u2019de \u201ccall opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, \u201cput opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma eklemek, daha temkinli bir \u201chedge\u201d (riskten korunma) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde sterlinin ilk g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin, \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a s\u0131k\u00e7a zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. BoE faizi sabit tutsa bile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dair kayg\u0131l\u0131 bir ton kullan\u0131rsa benzer bir tablo olu\u015fabilir. Bu nedenle 1,3600 \u00fczerindeki mevcut uzun pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ccovered call\u201d (eldeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tutarken al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak prim geliri elde etme) satmak, iyimserlikten yararlan\u0131rken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini de dikkate alan bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD 1,3565\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131: \u0130ran\u2019dan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sinyaliyle dolar g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini yitirdi. Piyasa Fed ve BoE\u2019yi bekliyor; z\u0131mni volatilite %9,5\u2019i a\u015farak k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45561\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}