USD\/JPY, nisan ay\u0131nda birden fazla k\u00fcresel riske ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k iki yenlik dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, Federal Rezerv (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ile yakla\u015fan veriler ve jeopolitik endi\u015feler etraf\u0131nda sert hareketler ya\u015fayabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, bu haftaki risklerin \u00fcst \u00fcste gelmesine ra\u011fmen USD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve ne kadar geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, s\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmelerin paritede son seviyelerden bir \u201ckopu\u015f\u201d (bant d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) yarat\u0131p yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair oda\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskinin piyasa taraf\u0131ndan yeterince fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. BoJ\u2019un enflasyon tahminlerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelleme ihtimali de izleniyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019dan s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmezse ve ABD taraf\u0131ndaki sinyaller dolar\u0131 desteklerken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa, USD\/JPY yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131labilir. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler, bu y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi 160,50 ile 2024 zirvesi 162.<\/p>\n
162\u2019ye do\u011fru bir hareket, i\u015flemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etme ihtimaliyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelebilir. USD\/JPY\u2019deki mevcut sakinlik, yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen paritenin 165,20 civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda; CME\u2019nin JPY\/USD CVOL endeksi (opsiyon piyasas\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) %7,5\u2019e gerileyerek ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi. Bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k, \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fan yay\u201d etkisi yaratarak sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in uygun zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n BoJ\u2019u hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer bir d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn de BoJ\u2019dan s\u00fcrpriz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski benzer \u015fekilde yeterince fiyatlanm\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en haftaki Tokyo \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutularak hesaplanan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8 oldu. Bu, BoJ\u2019un %2 hedefinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde 25. ay anlam\u0131na geliyor ve bankaya beklenenden daha sert ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e veriyor.<\/p>\n
Beklenen oynakl\u0131k bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken, opsiyon almak \u015fu anda daha ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. BoJ\u2019un pasif kalmas\u0131 halinde 168\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu \u00fcr\u00fcnler, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zararla (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) Fed ile BoJ aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve para politikas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) tetikleyebilece\u011fi h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareket riski de y\u00fcksek: ya BoJ\u2019dan s\u00fcrpriz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelir ya da do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi yap\u0131l\u0131r. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, parite ilk kez 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2024 Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,8 trilyon yenle piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in kalkan olabilir veya benzer bir senaryoya do\u011frudan pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) ABD\u2019de hizmet enflasyonunun kal\u0131c\u0131 seyri nedeniyle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin beklendi\u011fi ortamda daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. B\u00f6ylece, yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar lehine temel nedenler yerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu nedenle BoJ\u2019dan gelecek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fan yay\u201d yarat\u0131yor: Fed\/BoJ toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler k\u0131r\u0131lma getirebilir. BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131yor; yukar\u0131da 160,50-162-168, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da m\u00fcdahale\/\u015fok riskine kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45560","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45560"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45560\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45560"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45560"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45560"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}