Brent petrol, artan jeopolitik risk nedeniyle yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, Operation Epic Fury ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 29 Nisan\u2019daki War Powers Resolution (ABD\u2019de Kongre\u2019nin ba\u015fkana sava\u015f yetkisi s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 koyan karar\u0131) oylamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Oylama, operasyonun yetkisiz (Kongre onay\u0131 olmadan) bir a\u015famaya ge\u00e7ip ge\u00e7meyece\u011fine karar verecek. 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck anayasal s\u00fcre s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta doluyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin ad\u0131mlar\u0131, bu tarihten sonra da sahada hareket serbestisini korumaya odaklan\u0131yor. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan riskler aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc abluka (iki taraftan ge\u00e7i\u015fin engellenmesi) ihtimali ve Pakistan arabuluculu\u011fundaki ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 durdurma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri) t\u0131kanmas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20\u2019sinin uzun s\u00fcrebilecek bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada risk alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca may\u0131s ortas\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen Trump\u2013Xi zirvesi \u00f6ncesinde diplomatik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ihtimali de fiyatlara giriyor.<\/p>\n
Brent yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken piyasada belirgin bir jeopolitik risk primi (fiyata eklenen risk pay\u0131) olu\u015ftu. K\u0131sa vadeli odak 29 Nisan\u2019daki oylama; sonu\u00e7, Operation Epic Fury\u2019nin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini belirleyecek ve \u00e7ift abluka riskini do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Bu durum yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u201cya hep ya hi\u00e7\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc bir g\u00fcndem olu\u015fturuyor; sonu\u00e7, fiyat\u0131n iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket etmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi; petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksi OVX 55\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye en son 2022\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fck arz kesintilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4\u20135 dolar\/varil oynakl\u0131k bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle opsiyon almak pahal\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynarken \u201ccall spread\u201d (bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131lan, maliyeti azaltan strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 ihtimali, g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varili, yani k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n y\u00fczde 20\u2019sini riske at\u0131yor. 1990 K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda benzer bir arz \u015foku, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n iki ay\u0131 biraz a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrede iki kat\u0131ndan fazla artmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu. Bu \u00f6rnek, piyasadaki endi\u015feyi ve fiyatlara yerle\u015fen y\u00fcksek primi (piyasada \u00f6denen ek risk bedeli) destekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda (vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyonlar gibi ara\u00e7lar) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131na belirgin y\u0131\u011f\u0131lma var; yani y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde. Haziran vadeli 120 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonunun priminin (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) 90 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonuna (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) g\u00f6re fark\u0131 son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak i\u015flemin kalabal\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ters y\u00f6nde sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent, jeopolitik risk primiyle yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde: 29 Nisan War Powers oylamas\u0131 ve 1 May\u0131s s\u00fcre sonu kritik. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de \u00e7ift abluka korkusu OVX\u2019i 55\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; opsiyonlar pahal\u0131. Call\u2019larda y\u0131\u011f\u0131lma, sert \u00e7ift y\u00f6n risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45558\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}