Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ikinci g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi. NZD\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5840\u2019tan toparland\u0131ktan sonra 0,5900 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 0,5910\u2019un \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasa oyuncular\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin azalabilece\u011fine dair haberlere tepki verdi. Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re Tahran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ertelenmesini i\u00e7eren bir bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisini ABD\u2019ye iletti.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli teknik g\u00f6stergeler olumluydu. RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 60 civar\u0131nda seyrederken MACD histogram\u0131 (trend y\u00f6n\u00fc ve momentumunu izleyen MACD g\u00f6stergesinin s\u0131f\u0131r \u00e7izgisine g\u00f6re g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren b\u00f6l\u00fcm) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hafif \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 0,5930 civar\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 0,5965 (10 Mart zirvesi) ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6015 (26 \u015eubat zirvesi) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131mlar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 0,5860 civar\u0131nda izlenirken, bunun alt\u0131nda 0,5840 (Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn dip seviyesi) bulunuyor. 0,5840\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesi halinde odak yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5800\u2019e (13 Nisan dip seviyesi) kayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NZD\/USD\u2019de ek g\u00fc\u00e7lenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Basit bir strateji, Temmuz 2026 vadeli NZD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak. Bu y\u00f6ntem, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken azami riski opsiyon primiyle (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyat) olarak 0,6250 civar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; bu seviye, yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6180 olan g\u00fcncel spot fiyat\u0131n (anl\u0131k piyasa fiyat\u0131) biraz \u00fczerindedir. Bu pozisyon, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maktan gelen olumlu faiz getirisi (carry: y\u00fcksek faizli para birimini elde tutman\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131) ve ABD verileri zay\u0131flamaya devam ederse ek de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinden destek bulabilir. Ana risk, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) beklenmedik \u015fekilde daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fa (hawkish: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 sinyali) y\u00f6nelmesidir.<\/p>\n
Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, 2022\u2019de merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politika y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 kur d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri hat\u0131rlanabilir. Ko\u015fullar\u0131n h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini kabul ederek, al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na ek olarak, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckle \u201cparam\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzak oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u015fu an do\u011frudan k\u00e2rda olmayan opsiyon) almak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131t pozisyon) sa\u011flayabilir. Bu, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 bozulursa veya RBNZ beklenmedik \u015fekilde daha gev\u015fek duru\u015f (dovish: faiz indirimi veya daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 sinyali) verirse bir tampon olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve \u0130ran geriliminin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla NZD\/USD 0,5910 \u00fcst\u00fcne t\u0131rmand\u0131. Teknikler pozitif; 0,5930-0,6015 diren\u00e7. Strateji: 2026 Temmuz 0,6250 call. Risk: \u015fahin Fed; OTM put hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45557"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45557\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}