Japon Yeni, Pazartesi Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131; USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,15\u2019e geriledi. Hareket, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile kal\u0131c\u0131 ate\u015fkese haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa dair haberlerle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) erken kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek %0,25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 98,25\u2019e indi. (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endekstir.) Axios, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 hakk\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin yeni bir teklif g\u00f6nderdi\u011fini; bunun, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fart\u0131na ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonunda ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD heyetinin \u0130slamabad\u2019a planlanan ziyaretini iptal etti\u011fini ve bunun zaman kayb\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Pakistan \u00fczerinden iletilen \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131 teklifinin kabul edilemez oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor; faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. (Fed, ABD\u2019nin merkez bankas\u0131d\u0131r; politika faizi, kredi maliyetlerini ve dolar\u0131n seyrini etkiler.) Yen, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131ft\u0131; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert hareketlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feler nedeniyle faizin %0,75\u2019te b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. (BoJ, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131d\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 ate\u015fkes konu\u015fmalar\u0131yla USD\/JPY\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 159,15\u2019e indi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn parite 172,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, o d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulmayan jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na verilen k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc bir tepki oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Odak art\u0131k Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesinden \u00e7ok, kal\u0131c\u0131 ekonomik verilerde.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 98,25\u2019e \u00e7ekti\u011fi s\u00f6ylemi bug\u00fcn uzak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. DXY \u015fu anda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olan 108 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrediyor ve farkl\u0131 risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131yla destekleniyor. Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE verisi %2,8 gibi inat\u00e7\u0131 bir seviyede gelirken, piyasa bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019den h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert faiz indirimlerini fiyatlam\u0131yor. (T\u00dcFE, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesidir.)<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de tek bir y\u00f6ne net bahis yapman\u0131n riskli olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun yerine, fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed ve BoJ politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma piyasada gerilim yarat\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de straddle veya strangle almak (opsiyonlarla hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan stratejiler) y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun belirgin bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. (Straddle, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; strangle, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla alma; ikisi de volatiliteye oynar.)<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l BoJ faizi %0,75\u2019te tutmu\u015f ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan ekonomik riskleri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. BoJ 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda faizi %1,00\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fckseltse de temkinli duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu, Fed\u2019in faizi %4,00 civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131yla belirgin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131, \u201cyen carry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli yenden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli para birimlerinde getiri arama i\u015flemi) beslemeye devam ediyor ve JPY \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrekli de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu politika fark\u0131, yen sat\u0131p dolar almay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda bu faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in vadeli i\u015flemlerle (forward; bug\u00fcn anla\u015f\u0131p ileride belirli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmay\u0131 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda JPY sat\u0131labilir. Bu strateji, iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan do\u011frudan fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik man\u015fetler yine kur tetikledi: \u0130ran ate\u015fkes sinyaliyle dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, USD\/JPY 159,15\u2019e indi, DXY 98,25\u2019e geriledi. Odak Fed-BoJ ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, volatilite stratejileri, carry trade bask\u0131s\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45547\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}