Sterlin, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011fu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselerek 1,3545 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareketler, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, BoE\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve karar\u0131n 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 1 oyla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu beklenti, Mart ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki gerilemenin ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
BoE Ba\u015fekonomisti Huw Pill, artan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini belirtti. BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey ise Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re, Washington\u2019daki IMF toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 30 Nisan\u2019da politika ayarlamak i\u00e7in acele olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; bunu \u201c\u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olumsuz \u015fok\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son \u0130ngiltere verileri, g\u0131da, enerji, alkol ve t\u00fct\u00fcn kalemlerini hari\u00e7 tutan \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,2\u2019den %3,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) karar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik BoE faiz karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyali veriyor. ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,2580 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasa karar \u00f6ncesi netlik bekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu \u201ckarar \u00f6ncesi gerginlik\u201d, k\u0131sa vadeli GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda (Sterlin \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) maliyeti art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin faizi %4,5\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc son veriler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo sunuyor. Mart 2026 man\u015fet enflasyonu (genel enflasyon) %2,8\u2019e gerilese de, daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor ve %3,5 seviyesinde. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon, fiyat\u0131 s\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fen kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan g\u00f6stergedir; bu nedenle politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha \u201ctemel\u201d e\u011filimi anlat\u0131r. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, olas\u0131 faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in beklemek ad\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025 ilkbahar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00f6neme benziyor. O d\u00f6nemde politika faizi %3,75 iken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeydi ve piyasa karars\u0131zd\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nem, beklenen \u201cfaizi sabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131n bile ba\u015fkan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n tonuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak sert fiyat hareketleri yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur da Fed\u2019in bu hafta faizi %4,75-%5,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi. ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in Fed daha temkinli duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorlanm\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde ilerlemesi), Sterlin\u2019in Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayana\u011f\u0131 bir varl\u0131k olan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131ndan ve karar sonras\u0131 paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli bir \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak, yani paran\u0131n mevcut seviyesinden uzakta (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fu an i\u00e7in k\u00e2rl\u0131 olmayan) hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satmak, uygun bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu strateji, kurun iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket yapmamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar; opsiyon primleri (opsiyonun pe\u015fin fiyat\u0131) zamanla eridik\u00e7e sat\u0131c\u0131 lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi Sterlin dalgal\u0131: GBP\/USD 1,35\u2019e tutunurken piyasa %3,75\u2019te sabit ve 8-1 oy bekliyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon, Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Strangle stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45545\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}