Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 4.700 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ancak g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi b\u00fcy\u00fctmekte zorland\u0131. Haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesi i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye yeni bir \u00f6neri sundu; n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ise daha sonraki bir a\u015famaya ertelendi.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na dair endi\u015feleri azaltt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) en az bir kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fi beklentisi korunmu\u015f oldu. Faiz getirisi olmayan (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi bulunmayan) alt\u0131n bu beklentiden destek ald\u0131, ancak piyasalardaki temkinli hava y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fler, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hareket k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bloke kalmaya devam etti. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah hedeflerine sald\u0131r\u0131 emri verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; bu da jeopolitik riskleri g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Sal\u0131 ba\u015flayacak iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan para politikas\u0131 kurulu) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli kald\u0131. Odak noktas\u0131 enflasyon ve ABD\u2019deki ekonomik faaliyet olacak. ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Fiziki piyasada (spot\/teslimatl\u0131 alt\u0131n al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131), Hindistan\u2019da alt\u0131n primleri (yerel fiyat\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 fiyata g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek olu\u015fu) arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle iki bu\u00e7uk ay\u0131 a\u015fan s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de primler ons ba\u015f\u0131na 9-12 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki hafta 3-6 dolar seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, mart ay\u0131nda test etti\u011fi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamadan (SMA: belli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) toparland\u0131ktan sonra ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana bant i\u00e7inde hareket ediyor. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 47 civar\u0131nda, MACD (iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farkla trend\/momentum \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif sinyal veriyor. Destek 4.650-4.645 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde; diren\u00e7ler 4.750, 4.800 ve 4.860-4.865 dolar seviyelerinde. Bunun \u00fczerinde 5.000 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sinyallerin \u00e7eli\u015fmesi nedeniyle net bir y\u00f6n bahsinden \u00e7ok dalgalanma (volatilite) \u00fczerinden f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 dolar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019in askeri ad\u0131mlar\u0131 jeopolitik risk primini canl\u0131 tutuyor. Benzer bir tablo 2025 sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ilk bar\u0131\u015f s\u00f6ylentileri \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde sert ama ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla piyasa yeniden denge bulmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k; piyasa Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 konusunda tedirgin. Son ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) raporunda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,1\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131; bu da Fed\u2019in \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi\/gev\u015feme e\u011filimli) bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 daha az kesin hale getiriyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) verileri, Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019ya kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde %70\u2019ten %60\u2019\u0131n biraz alt\u0131na geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.645-4.865 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, opsiyon primi satmak (opsiyon satarak prim geliri elde etmek) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir strateji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Iron condor (ayn\u0131 vadede, \u00fcstte call ve altta put opsiyonu satarak; daha d\u0131\u015f seviyelerden koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon al\u0131p dar banttan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen d\u00f6rt bacakl\u0131 yap\u0131) kurulumu; 4.870 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde call sat\u0131p 4.640 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda put satarak fiyat\u0131n bantta kalmas\u0131 ve zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonun zaman de\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) yararlanabilir. Cboe Alt\u0131n ETF Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinde beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 18,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019den g\u00fcvercin mesajlar veya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziki talep ile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyenler i\u00e7in call spread (bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 seviyeden ba\u015fka bir call satarak maliyeti azaltan, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran yap\u0131) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 4.800 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p 5.000 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken olas\u0131 hareketin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yakalamay\u0131 hedefler. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek raporu da merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n %12 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ederek bu senaryoyu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak 4.645 dolardaki kritik deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma) kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Fed\u2019den beklenenden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f e\u011filimli) bir a\u00e7\u0131klama dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip alt\u0131n\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. 4.600 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) b\u00f6yle bir harekete kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir ve teknik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik hafta: XAU\/USD 4.700 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00f6nerisi petrol\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131, Fed indirimi beklentisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Jeopolitik risk ve FOMC \u00f6ncesi temkin alt\u0131n\u0131 bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45542"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45542\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}