ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci g\u00fcnde de geriledi ve ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,00 seviyesindeki bir haftal\u0131k zirveden uzakla\u015ft\u0131. Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 98,00\u2019lerin ortas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. G\u00fcndemde ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair umutlar vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine y\u00f6nelik ABD\u2019ye bir \u00f6neri iletti; n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ise daha ileri bir tarihe ertelendi. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. (\u015eahin: Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan yakla\u015f\u0131m.)<\/p>\n
Grafik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, DXY\u2019nin 4 saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) direncini a\u015famamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Endeks ayr\u0131ca, nisan ay\u0131nda iki ayl\u0131k dip b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seviyeden gelen toparlanman\u0131n %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi. (Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi: Fiyat\u0131n bir hareket sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme\/d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f seviyelerini g\u00f6steren teknik oranlar.)<\/p>\n
MACD negatif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7ti. (MACD: iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farkla trend\/momentum \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge.) RSI ise 45 civar\u0131nda. (RSI: fiyat\u0131n \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6stergesi.)<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri: 98,44 (%38,2 d\u00fczeltme) ve 98,63 (%23,6), ard\u0131ndan 98,84 (200 periyotluk EMA) ve 98,94.<\/p>\n
Destek seviyeleri: 98,29 (%50,0) ve 98,13 (%61,8), ard\u0131ndan 97,91 (%78,6) ve 97,64 (nisan ay\u0131ndaki dip). Analizde, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131ndan destek al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin tamamen yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesinden faydalanacak stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak. Olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 put spread ile korunma (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; spread: iki opsiyonu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlama) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunar.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden bug\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Euro\/dolar paritesi i\u00e7in CME Group Volatilite Endeksi (CVOL: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi), DXY\u2019nin ana bile\u015fenlerinden biri olarak, \u015fu anda 9,8 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. DXY\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasadan uzak (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) put satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak ve dolar\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tmak i\u00e7in bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Odak, iki hafta sonra yap\u0131lacak Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC: Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurul) toplant\u0131s\u0131na kay\u0131yor. \u201cAra verme\u201d ya da \u201cy\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirme\u201d sinyali veren bir ifade, mevcut dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zorlayabilir ve bu pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirebilir. O zamana kadar, en olas\u0131 senaryo g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veya bant i\u00e7inde hareket eden bir dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY iki g\u00fcnd\u00fcr geriliyor: ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f umudu ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Fed\u2019in \u015fahin fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Teknikte momentum zay\u0131f; 200 EMA alt\u0131nda. T\u00fcrevde oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z FOMC; dolar bantta kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45540"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45540\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}