G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 dolarl\u0131k bir bantta, 75-77 dolar aras\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin haberleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 bekledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam etti. <\/p>\n
Axios, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye yeni bir bar\u0131\u015f teklifi g\u00f6nderdi\u011fini; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bitirmeyi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131, n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ise daha sonraya b\u0131rakmay\u0131 \u00f6nerdi\u011fini bildirdi. Hafta sonu yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler iptal edildi. <\/p>\n
Bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7i\u015f h\u00e2l\u00e2 engelliyken ham petrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu durum, \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (ekonomik durgunlukla birlikte enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmesi) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da ABD dolar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve de\u011ferli metallerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenledi. <\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde dikkatler ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. Fed\u2019in faizi sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak y\u00fcksek enflasyon, bu y\u0131l \u201cparasal gev\u015feme\u201d (faiz indirimleri ve daha bol para politikas\u0131) beklentilerini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasalar verilecek mesajlar\u0131 izleyecek. <\/p>\n
Piyasalar, g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi May\u0131s\u2019ta bitecek olan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019a da odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Yerine gelecek isim olarak Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n gelecek ay aday g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Powell\u2019\u0131n ise 2028\u2019e kadar Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi (governor) olarak kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, ayr\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde onu g\u00f6revden alabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. <\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 75-77 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, piyasan\u0131n iki b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131 tetikleyici \u00f6ncesinde bekle-g\u00f6r modunda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu \u201ckonsolidasyon\u201d (fiyat\u0131n dar bantta yatay s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketin birikti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u201cT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn\u201d (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yatay seyrin s\u00fcrmesinden \u00e7ok sert bir \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lma\u201dya (breakout: band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli \u201copsiyon\u201dlarda (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: piyasada fiyatlanan beklenen dalgalanma) aldat\u0131c\u0131 bir sakinlik olabilir. <\/p>\n
Ana risk, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f teklifi ve kapal\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler. Olumlu bir sonu\u00e7, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131ndaki petrol\u00fcn sert gerilemesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu da stagflasyon korkusunu azalt\u0131p ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 77 dolar \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d seviyesinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) \u00fczerine net bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019te enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE), iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalm\u0131\u015f ve Fed\u2019i politika de\u011fi\u015fimini (pivot: s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015ftan gev\u015femeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) ertelemeye zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu bask\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair her i\u015faret, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi \u201cgetiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar\u201d (faiz\/kupon \u00f6demez; alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi) i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131r. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in uzun s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclen en \u00f6nemli \u201carz taraf\u0131 rahatlamas\u0131\u201d (supply-side relief: piyasaya mal\/enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) olur. <\/p>\n
Bu haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6zellikle kurumun liderli\u011fiyle ilgili ba\u015fl\u0131klar nedeniyle belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Faizin sabit kalmas\u0131 beklense de, gelecekteki politikaya ili\u015fkin her mesaj ve Powell\u2019dan sonraki ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci piyasada sert dalgalanma yaratabilir. Piyasa bu y\u0131l yaln\u0131zca bir faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor; y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda beklenen \u00fc\u00e7 indirime g\u00f6re bu belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. <\/p>\n
Powell\u2019dan beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish: faizi indirmeye daha yatk\u0131n) bir ton gelmesi dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesine ve de\u011ferli metallere destek vermesine neden olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015f ya da bankadaki siyasi gerilimin artmas\u0131, dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6neminde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 75 dolar \u201cdestek\u201d seviyesinin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunulan seviye) alt\u0131na itebilir. Bu farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7 ihtimalleri, riskin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 konum almak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemleri veya ilgili ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak\u201d amac\u0131yla uzun \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d stratejileri (opsiyon stratejileri: ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte alarak y\u00f6n\u00fc do\u011fru tahmin etmeden b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynama) uygulanabilir. B\u00f6ylece, tetikleyicinin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 m\u0131 yoksa Fed\u2019den bir politika s\u00fcrprizi mi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmeden b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 75-77 dolarda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Piyasa, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f sinyali ve Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kapal\u0131, petrol 100 dolar; stagflasyon korkusu. Konsolidasyon k\u0131r\u0131lmaya gebe, oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45539\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}