ABD Dolar\u0131, jeopolitik ve siyasi cepheden gelen olumlu haberlerin ard\u0131ndan haftaya hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek seyreden faizler (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizi) ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk unsurlar\u0131 olmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyonun kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin zor oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyon ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketim ile istihdam\u0131n, Fed\u2019in temkinli hareket etmesine neden oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n zirve seviyelere yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu, Fed\u2019in ise faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapmaya daha yatk\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi. Bu duru\u015fun dolara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verdi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 98,50 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu, sakin ge\u00e7en pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcnde hareketin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. DXY\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin haberlerle zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015fu nedeniyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n destek bulmaya devam etmesini bekliyoruz. DXY 98,50 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ortam\u0131nda Fed\u2019in enflasyona \u201ctamam\u201d sinyali vermesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadede dolara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 (dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynamay\u0131) riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekleyen unsurlardan biri, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Mart 2026 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi 265 bin art\u0131\u015fla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131nda (faiz ve likidite ayarlar\u0131nda) k\u0131sa vadede yumu\u015famaya gitmesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc teredd\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fcn, 2022\u2019de yap\u0131lan politika hatalar\u0131ndan etkilendi\u011fi belirtiliyor. O d\u00f6nemde enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7 kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131, sonras\u0131nda daha sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu haf\u0131za, yetkilileri enflasyonun tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan emin olana kadar faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutmaya y\u00f6neltiyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma maliyetinden gelir elde etmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck stratejileri g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin DXY\u2019de ya da USD\/JPY gibi dolar a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 paritelerde \u201czarar-kesin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyattan uzak) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamaya imk\u00e2n verir. Opsiyonlar, riskin \u00f6nceden tan\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 (en fazla kayb\u0131n belli olmas\u0131) nedeniyle dolarda yatay-pozitif bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ifade etmekte kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131m, faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisine oynamakt\u0131r. Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok\u201d sinyali, faiz piyasalar\u0131nda bir s\u00fcre yatay seyri (konsolidasyon) beraberinde getirebilir. Bu da SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate; teminatl\u0131 gecelik finansman faizi) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; fiyat\u0131n dar bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi gibi jeopolitik risklere dikkat edilmeli. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda ani bir iyile\u015fme dolar\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir; bu nedenle pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak (hedge; ters y\u00f6nde i\u015flemle risk azaltmak) \u00f6nem kazan\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, beklenmedik bir Fed yumu\u015famas\u0131 ya da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201crisk alma\u201d dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 DXY\u2019de \u00e7ok uzak kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar haftaya hafif ekside: \u0130ran haberleri DXY\u2019yi 98,50\u2019ye iterken, 95$ \u00fcst\u00fc petrol ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam Fed\u2019i temkinli tutuyor. Faizler uzun s\u00fcre sabit; dolara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon riskli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45537\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}