Finansal piyasalar, bu hafta yap\u0131lacak merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne temkinli bir hava ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak y\u00fcksek etkili bir veri yok. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler ise odakta.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonunda ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lacak bir sonraki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turu i\u00e7in Pakistan\u2019a planlanan heyeti iptal etti. Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok \u015fey teklif etti\u011fini ama yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc de \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131nda bitece\u011fini ve ABD\u2019nin galip gelece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnya petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi stratejik deniz ge\u00e7idi) yeniden a\u00e7mak ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye yeni bir \u00f6neri g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi bildirildi. Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 (deniz ge\u00e7i\u015fini engelleyen askeri\/siyasi ku\u015fatma) kald\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler teklif etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, haftaya \u201cyukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu\u201d (piyasa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde ba\u015flamas\u0131) ile ba\u015flad\u0131, ancak Asya\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Dolar Endeksi (USD Index, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 98,50 civar\u0131nda. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz ve politika karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri (endeksleri gelecekteki bir fiyattan al\u0131p satmaya yarayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY (dolar\/yen paritesi) cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 geriledi, ancak haftay\u0131 art\u0131da kapatarak \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Avrupa sabah\u0131nda 159,50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019da GfK T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi (hane halk\u0131n\u0131n harcama e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket verisi) may\u0131sta, nisandaki -28,1\u2019den -33,3\u2019e geriledi. EUR\/USD (euro\/dolar paritesi) 1,1700 \u00fczerinde tutundu. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) karar\u0131 per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc gelecek.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD (sterlin\/dolar) 1,3500 \u00fczerinde yatay seyretti. Alt\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta %2\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve 4.700 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. USD\/CAD (dolar\/Kanada dolar\u0131) ise Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 1,3650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nem, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 nedeniyle ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi piyasay\u0131 tedirgin etmi\u015fti. Nisan 2025\u2019teki bu olay, jeopolitik risklerin petrol piyasas\u0131nda ani oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) yaratabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli opsiyonlar (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201ckorunma\u201d (hedge: portf\u00f6y kayb\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in risk azaltma) ama\u00e7l\u0131 daha makul g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Brent petrol (Kuzey Denizi referans ham petrol\u00fc) Nisan 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar civar\u0131nda. B\u00f6lgedeki yeni bir gerilim, fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 100 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na odaklanma temas\u0131 yine g\u00fcndemde ve bu durum faiz t\u00fcrevlerini (faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Fed ve ECB a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasan\u0131n karars\u0131z kalmas\u0131, tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (faizli menkul k\u0131ymetler \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) k\u0131sa vadeli sert hareketler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. MOVE Endeksi (tahvil piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) May\u0131s 2025\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7rama yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u015fu anda 110 seviyesine yak\u0131n. Bu da piyasan\u0131n faiz kaynakl\u0131 fiyat hareketlerinin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019te Almanya\u2019da zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verisi, euronun performans\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir referans. O d\u00f6nemde -33,3\u2019e gerileme, EUR\/USD 1,1700 \u00fczerinde kalsa bile para birimi i\u00e7in zorlu bir s\u00fcrecin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7memi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn parite 1,0700 \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlan\u0131yor ve son g\u00fcven verisi h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser -24,0 seviyesinde. Bu tabloda euroda \u201czarar yazd\u0131rmayan\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak (out-of-the-money call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: mevcut fiyattan daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak prim toplama) prim geliri (opsiyon primi: s\u00f6zle\u015fmeyi alan\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi \u00fccret) elde etmek i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l alt\u0131n\u0131n, jeopolitik risklere ra\u011fmen 4.700 dolar \u00fczerinde zorlanmas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n metalin y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Dolar Endeksi o d\u00f6nemde 98,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti ve alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (krizde de\u011fer korudu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen varl\u0131k) talebini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. \u015eu anda alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.330 dolar civar\u0131nda. Dolar daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse benzer bir tabloya kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar, Fed-ECB-BoJ toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi temkinli a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; veri g\u00fcndemi sakin. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz mesajlar\u0131 dolar\u0131 oynat\u0131yor. Brent 100$ riski, MOVE 110 uyar\u0131yor; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45532\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}