GBP\/USD ikinci g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi. 1,3500 seviyesine yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde gelen al\u0131mlar (fiyat gerileyince al\u0131m yapmak) pariteyi Pazartesi Asya seans\u0131nda bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,10 art\u0131\u015fla 1,3500\u2019lerin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 1,3600 olas\u0131 hedef olarak g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine y\u00f6nelik ABD\u2019ye yeni bir \u00f6neri sundu\u011funa dair haberlerle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi de enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131; bu da Dolar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\u2019e destek, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) bu y\u0131l para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rmak veya finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rmak) beklentisinden geldi. Ayr\u0131 bir g\u00fcncellemede, GBP\/USD\u2019nin Asya saatlerinde kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131ktan sonra 1,3520 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu haberde Sterlin\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, t\u0131kanan ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u011fland\u0131. Bloomberg pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali i\u00e7in Pakistan\u2019a g\u00f6nderilecek bir heyeti iptal etti\u011fini yazd\u0131; Trump, \u201cKonu\u015fmak istiyorlarsa bize gelebilirler ya da bizi arayabilirler\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Haberde ayr\u0131ca Trump\u2019\u0131n cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Jared Kushner ve Steve Witkoff\u2019a seyahati atlamalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok \u015fey teklif etti\u011fi ama yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d belirtildi. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ctehdit ya da abluka alt\u0131nda dayat\u0131lan m\u00fczakerelere\u201d girmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te de ABD\u2013\u0130ran haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3500 \u00e7evresinde sert dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 (y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k) benzer bir d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn ana gerilim s\u00fcrse de tetikleyiciler ve fiyat seviyeleri de\u011fi\u015fti. Parite \u015fu anda 1,2850\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlan\u0131yor; bu da \u00f6nceki zirvelere g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimlerin \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d e\u011filimi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) yaratmas\u0131yla destek buluyor. Ancak ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan son ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7) %2,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ve Dolar\u2019daki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu arada Sterlin, i\u00e7 dinamiklerle destekleniyor. Son ONS (\u0130ngiltere resmi istatistik kurumu) verileri, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun %3,1 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, kal\u0131c\u0131) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve BoE\u2019nin hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu veri, piyasan\u0131n BoE\u2019nin faiz indiren son b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan biri olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek Sterlin\u2019e temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 etkiler nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev (opsiyon gibi) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde (yukar\u0131-a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 aral\u0131kta) kalmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 beklenir. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesi, piyasan\u0131n net bir y\u00f6n k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00e7ok dalgal\u0131 bir seyir fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, 1,2750\u20131,2950 beklenen band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u201cstrangle satmak\u201d gibi stratejiler i\u00e7in uygun olabilir. Strangle, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullan\u0131r; \u201csatmak\u201d ise prim toplamak i\u00e7in bu opsiyonlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon almakt\u0131r ve risk y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 da f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. BoE s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korurken Fed daha yumu\u015fak bir tutuma kayd\u0131k\u00e7a, GBP\u2019yi USD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maktan (faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri elde etmek) do\u011fan \u201cpozitif ta\u015f\u0131ma\u201d art\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu fark\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem\/s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle (forward, ileri tarihli kur sabitleme) kilitleyebilir; bu da parite i\u00e7in do\u011fal bir taban etkisi yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD al\u0131mlarla 1,35\u2019e dayand\u0131: 1,36 hedefte. Dolar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/bar\u0131\u015f haberleri ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrolle zay\u0131flad\u0131. BoE s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi Sterlin\u2019i desteklerken, oynakl\u0131k bant piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45529\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}