USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin son b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ilk kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi ve 159,20 civar\u0131na geriledi. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla geldi; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,45 civar\u0131nda. <\/p>\n
Islamabad\u2019da yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenen ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, Washington\u2019un ABD\u2019li temsilcilerin ziyaretini iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan iptal edildi. Axios\u2019a g\u00f6re bu karar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan \u00fczerinden iletti\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131 teklifin ABD taraf\u0131ndan yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi sonras\u0131nda al\u0131nd\u0131. <\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok daha iyi ama h\u00e2l\u00e2 yeterli de\u011fil\u201d dedi\u011fi yeni bir teklif sundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz kararlar\u0131 var. <\/p>\n
Her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi, ancak daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere ve ekonomide a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere dikkat \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor. Teknik tarafta (grafik bazl\u0131 analizde), USD\/JPY 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA: son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) 159,14 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. <\/p>\n
Parite, 159,20 civar\u0131ndaki \u201cAl\u00e7alan \u00dc\u00e7gen\u201d (Descending Triangle: fiyat\u0131n giderek daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepeler yap\u0131p yatay bir destek \u00e7izgisine dayanmas\u0131; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilen formasyon) k\u0131r\u0131lma b\u00f6lgesini test etti. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi; 50 civar\u0131 n\u00f6tr kabul edilir) 52 civar\u0131nda. Destek 159,17 ve 159,14, ard\u0131ndan 157,60; diren\u00e7 160,00 ve 160,46 seviyelerinde. <\/p>\n
Odak BoJ\u2019da kalmaya devam ediyor. BoJ, bu y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u201cnormalle\u015fmeye\u201d (faiz ve politika ayarlar\u0131n\u0131 ola\u011fan seviyelere kademeli d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme) \u00e7ok yava\u015f bir patika i\u015faret ediyor. Son veride Japonya \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (core CPI: oynak kalemler, genelde taze g\u0131da gibi, hari\u00e7 tutularak hesaplanan enflasyon) %2,8 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, BoJ\u2019un temkinli duru\u015fu yeni bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutuyor. Bu teredd\u00fct, carry trade\u2019lerin (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p faizi y\u00fcksek olana yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma stratejisi) s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in alan yarat\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta Fed, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in politika de\u011fi\u015fimine (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine faiz indirimi veya daha gev\u015fek duru\u015fa ge\u00e7i\u015f) i\u015faret ediyor; bu, daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tersine bir tablo. ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 225 bine y\u00fckseldi, \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, dalgal\u0131 kalemler hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketim enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) %2,5\u2019e geriledi. Piyasalar art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar Fed\u2019in faiz indirece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesinden (momentum: fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r) yararlan\u0131rken sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cbo\u011fa call spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir call opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir call satmak; kazan\u00e7 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, azami kay\u0131p \u00f6nceden belli) hareketi 178,00\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131nacak bir senaryoda etkili olabilir ve azami zarar\u0131 netle\u015ftirir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) yans\u0131tan temay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, duyarl\u0131l\u0131k aniden de\u011fi\u015firse s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z risk al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 engeller. <\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca z\u0131mni volatiliteyi (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) izlemek gerekiyor; bu seviyelerde Japon yetkililerden s\u00f6zl\u00fc (a\u00e7\u0131klama yoluyla) ya da fiili m\u00fcdahale riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle opsiyon satmak riskli; volatilitedeki ani s\u0131\u00e7rama b\u00fcy\u00fck zarara yol a\u00e7abilir. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d veya \u201cuzun strangle\u201d (her ikisi de ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklemek; straddle\u2019da kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 ayn\u0131\/\u00e7ok yak\u0131n, strangle\u2019da farkl\u0131) y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/JPY 159,20\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi; DXY 98,45. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri iptal. Piyasalar BoJ-Fed kararlar\u0131na kilitli. Teknikte EMA \u00fcst\u00fc, \u00fc\u00e7gen k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 testte; 160 diren\u00e7, 159 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45528\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}