AUD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 114,15 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) yeniden a\u00e7mak ve sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye bir teklif iletti\u011fine dair haberler, piyasalarda risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Teklif, ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurulmas\u0131) uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve iki \u00fclkenin kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n teklifi Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD\u2019nin yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n ise net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya Mart T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en en temel enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) bekliyor. T\u00dcFE\u2019nin Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi (y\u0131ll\u0131k baz: ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re), \u015eubat\u2019taki %3,7\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu veri, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) 5 May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 100\u2019de 1\u2019i; 25 bp = 0,25 puan) faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) bu hafta politika faizini %0,75\u2019te (politika faizi: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi temel faiz) sabit tutmas\u0131 genel beklenti. BoJ\u2019un, enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisini inceledi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Japonya h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun Mart\u2019ta be\u015f ay sonra ilk kez h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Notlarda, yenin (Japon para birimi) Japonya ekonomisinin performans\u0131ndan, BoJ politikas\u0131ndan, tahvil getirisi farklar\u0131ndan (getiri fark\u0131: iki \u00fclkenin tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan etkilendi\u011fi belirtildi. Ayr\u0131ca BoJ\u2019un 2013-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki \u00e7ok gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 (faizlerin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek) ve 2024\u2019ten itibaren kademeli geri \u00e7ekilme s\u00fcrecine (desteklerin yava\u015f yava\u015f azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya d\u00f6n\u00fck teklifi, k\u0131sa vadeli jeopolitik riski azalt\u0131yor. Bu durum, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (VIX: piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 13,5\u2019e \u00e7ekerek \u00e7eyre\u011fin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indirdi ve genel piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirdi. Bu ortam, g\u00fcvenli liman (belirsizlikte tercih edilen) Japon Yeni yerine Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi riskli varl\u0131k para birimlerini (risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131nca g\u00fc\u00e7lenen para birimleri) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki Avustralya T\u00dcFE verisi yak\u0131ndan izleniyor; tahminler %4,7\u2019ye belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan 1. \u00e7eyrek \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI: \u00fcretici maliyetlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er) %1,5 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar, 5 May\u0131s\u2019taki RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor (fiyatlamak: beklentinin varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131).<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoJ\u2019un bu hafta politika faizini %0,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ba\u015fkan Ueda, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclse de bunun hen\u00fcz bankan\u0131n arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131, talep kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona (talep kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon: t\u00fcketimin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla fiyatlar\u0131n artmas\u0131) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu, BoJ\u2019un temkinli kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na g\u00f6re s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmada (s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma: faiz art\u0131rma ve\/veya likiditeyi azaltma) geriden gelebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz jeopolitik yumu\u015fama AUD\/JPY\u2019yi 114,15\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz teklifi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p VIX\u2019i dipte tuttu. G\u00f6zler Avustralya T\u00dcFE\u2019sinde; %4,7 beklentisi RBA\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45527\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}