USD\/CHF ikinci g\u00fcnde de zay\u0131f seyrini korudu. Parite, Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7850\u2019ye do\u011fru gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan 0,7840 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na (piyasa stresi d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131klar) talep artsa da ABD Dolar\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam etti.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesin bozulma riski artt\u0131k\u00e7a ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 azalabilir. \u0130srail ve Hizbullah, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 hafta durdurmay\u0131 hedefleyen ABD arabuluculu\u011fundaki uzatmaya ra\u011fmen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme zemini yaratabilecek Pakistan heyetini iptal etti. Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Jared Kushner ve Steve Witkoff\u2019a seyahati iptal etmelerini s\u00f6yledi. Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok \u015fey teklif etti\u011fini ama yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtirken, \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ctehdit veya abluka alt\u0131nda dayat\u0131lan m\u00fczakerelere\u201d girmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma ve sava\u015f\u0131 bitirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ABD\u2019ye bir \u00f6neri g\u00f6nderdi\u011fini bildirdi. Habere g\u00f6re \u00f6neri, n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ertelenmesini de i\u00e7eriyor. Plan, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
SNB (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Martin Schlegel, bankan\u0131n politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine ve d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasadan d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 para al\u0131m\u0131 yapma iste\u011fini yineledi; daha y\u00fcksek belirsizlik, k\u0131sa vadede zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enerji maliyetleri artt\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckselen enflasyonu gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda jeopolitik risk art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla belirgin bir gerginlik g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; VIX\u2019in 25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksi; y\u00fckselmesi belirsizlik ve dalgalanman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvenli liman talebi yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak SNB\u2019nin frang\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahale niyeti daha bask\u0131n oldu. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler), SNB\u2019nin frang\u0131n sert de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131ndan yararlanan stratejilere odaklanabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, paran\u0131n mevcut seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalan kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak (out-of-the-money call; fiyat hedef seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a prim geliri sa\u011flar) bu yakla\u015f\u0131ma \u00f6rnektir.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,7850 civar\u0131ndan 0,8500 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseli\u015fi, bu politikan\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6steriyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011fi verileri, SNB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n elindeki yabanc\u0131 para varl\u0131klar\u0131) belirgin art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti; bu, piyasaya aktif m\u00fcdahalenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6stergesidir. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015flerde frang\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erli olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc banka kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fken, odak yeniden faiz farklar\u0131na (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark; kur \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli etkisi olur) d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Mart 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) %2,9 geldi. Bu veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerinde SNB\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha yava\u015f kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, USD\/CHF\u2019nin daha y\u00fcksek bir denge seviyesini destekleyebilir; bu nedenle, belirgin geri \u00e7ekilmelerde dolar uzun pozisyonu (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon almak) franga kar\u015f\u0131 cazip olabilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut sakinli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan kalan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi tamamen bitmedi. 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki aral\u0131kl\u0131 deniz olaylar\u0131 bunu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, oynakl\u0131kta ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir risk olarak kalabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, beklenmedik bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in (hedge; zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem) ucuz, uzun vadeli opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda frank h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir ve SNB\u2019nin tepki vermesinden \u00f6nce kurda sert hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada kritik soru: USD\/CHF d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u00fcrecek mi? Parite 0,7840\u2019ta zay\u0131f. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve \u0130ran diplomasisi izlenirken, SNB m\u00fcdahale sinyali ve faiz fark\u0131 dolar lehine denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45516\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}