WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in referans fiyat) Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 93,65 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fiyatlar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fin h\u00e2l\u00e2 ciddi \u015fekilde k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma ve ate\u015fkesi uzatma \u00f6nerisi iletti\u011fi bildirildi. Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n plan\u0131 de\u011ferlendirip de\u011ferlendirmeyece\u011fi net de\u011fil. Arzda (piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131nda) kesinti riski endi\u015feleri fiyatlar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Trump, Jared Kushner ve Steve Witkoff\u2019a Pakistan seyahatini iptal etmelerini s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok \u015fey teklif etti\u011fini ama yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtti. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ctehdit veya abluka alt\u0131nda dayat\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere\u201d girmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak American Petroleum Institute (API) stok raporunu bekliyor. Stoklarda beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, talebin (t\u00fcketim iste\u011fi ve ihtiyac\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edebilir. Beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f ise talebin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa veya piyasada fazla arz olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
WTI, West Texas Intermediate\u2019\u0131n k\u0131saltmas\u0131d\u0131r ve Brent ile Dubai t\u00fcrleriyle birlikte ba\u015fl\u0131ca ham petrol s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131ndan biridir. \u201cHafif\u201d (yo\u011funlu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) ve \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc\u201d (k\u00fck\u00fcrt oran\u0131 az; bu nedenle rafinaj\u0131 daha kolay ve genelde daha de\u011ferlidir) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilir ve Cushing depolama\/teslimat merkezi \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 arz ve talep, ABD dolar\u0131, jeopolitik risk, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve OPEC kararlar\u0131 etkiler. API verisi her Sal\u0131, EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi; resmi kurum) verisi ise ertesi g\u00fcn yay\u0131mlan\u0131r; sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birbirine yak\u0131n olsa da EIA genelde daha g\u00fcvenilir kabul edilir. OPEC (Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc) 12 \u00fcyeden olu\u015fur. OPEC+ ise OPEC\u2019e ek olarak Rusya dahil OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 10 \u00fclkeyi kapsayan daha geni\u015f gruptur.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019nin 93,65 dolar civar\u0131ndaki seviyesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde jeopolitik korkuyla \u015fekilleniyor; sadece arz-talep dengesiyle (temel dinamiklerle) de\u011fil. Bu belirsizlik, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor ve opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ciddi bir arz \u015foku ihtimali g\u00fcndemde. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7iyor; bu da k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019ine denk geliyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde fiyat\u0131n ani s\u0131\u00e7rama riskine kar\u015f\u0131, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131r\u0131r) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Haziran vadeli 100 veya 105 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fte getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mda risk, \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, m\u00fczakerelerde beklenmedik bir ilerleme fiyatlar\u0131 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 80\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n alt band\u0131na geri \u00e7ekebilir. Buna haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131r\u0131r) almak, uzun pozisyonlara (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan i\u015flemlere) kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir veya do\u011frudan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kullan\u0131labilir. Ancak y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k nedeniyle bu opsiyonlar pahal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in put spread (bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satmak; primi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) tercih edebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik sonucun \u201cya olacak ya olmayacak\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fcnde iki u\u00e7lu (binary) olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, dalgalanmay\u0131 do\u011frudan i\u015flem yapmak da bir se\u00e7enek. Straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; fiyat sert \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 giderse kazand\u0131r\u0131r) stratejisi, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesi halinde k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir. Bu, bu haftaki API stok raporu \u00f6ncesinde \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemli; veri, piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 93,65 dolarda. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 arz \u015foku korkusunu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; g\u00f6zler API stoklar\u0131nda. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45509\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}