G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda ons ba\u015f\u0131na 76,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesiyle talep artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere arac\u0131l\u0131k eden Pakistan\u2019a g\u00f6nderilmesi planlanan heyeti iptal etti. Trump, Jared Kushner ve Steve Witkoff\u2019a seyahat etmemelerini s\u00f6yledi; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok \u015fey teklif etti\u011fini ama yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtti.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u201cKonu\u015fmak istiyorlarsa bize gelebilirler ya da bizi arayabilirler\u201d dedi. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ctehdit veya abluka alt\u0131nda dayat\u0131lan m\u00fczakerelere\u201d girmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Stratejik bir su yolundan ge\u00e7i\u015f, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kontrolleri ve ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131 (deniz kuvvetleriyle uygulanan ge\u00e7i\u015f k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131) nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi ve arz kesintisi (piyasaya daha az petrol ula\u015fmas\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n (faiz belirleyen kurumlar\u0131n) temkinli kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu da faiz getirisi olmayan (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demeyen) g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenirken, yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminde kademeli faiz indirimleri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Gerilimin t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131na oynayanlar i\u00e7in, Temmuz vadeli kontrat\u0131 (belirli bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zararla kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyon) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel sunar. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin daha da bozulmas\u0131 veya stratejik su yolunda ek k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 80 dolar seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hen\u00fcz k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest; kapanmam\u0131\u015f toplam kontrat say\u0131s\u0131) son bir haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 artt\u0131; bu i\u015flemin yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir risk. Olas\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, korunma (hedge; zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) amac\u0131yla makul olabilir. 2022-2023 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tutumunun (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) enflasyon s\u00fcrerken bile getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurabildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Yeni Ba\u015fkan Warsh, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir \u00e7izgi sinyali verirse, spek\u00fclatif uzun pozisyonlarda (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyonlar) h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Ana unsur, Washington ve Tahran\u2019dan gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 izlemek; gerilimin azalmas\u0131na dair herhangi bir sinyal sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Son \u201cCommitment of Traders\u201d (COT; ABD reg\u00fclat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn vadeli piyasalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 gruplar\u0131n\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren raporu) verisine g\u00f6re, profesyonel fonlar (managed money) g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte son iki y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek net uzun pozisyonunu (al\u0131m pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131m pozisyonlar\u0131ndan fazla olmas\u0131) ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum, Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde jeopolitik risk primi (gerilim nedeniyle fiyata eklenen pay) ortadan kalkarsa piyasay\u0131 ani bir terse d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 76 dolara t\u0131rman\u0131rken ABD\u2013\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki t\u0131kanma g\u00fcvenli liman talebini k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Opsiyonlarda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon %40 artt\u0131; ancak yakla\u015fan Fed karar\u0131 sert d\u00fczeltme riski ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45503\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}