\u0130ran, Bloomberg\u2019in Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Axios\u2019a dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberine g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesini hedefleyen bir \u00f6neriyi ABD\u2019ye iletti. Haberde bir ABD\u2019li yetkili ile konuya yak\u0131n iki kayna\u011fa at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6neri, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir biti\u015f i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131lmas\u0131na zaman tan\u0131mak \u00fczere ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyordu. Ayr\u0131ca n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin ertelenece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Plana g\u00f6re n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki ablukay\u0131 (ge\u00e7i\u015fi engelleyen\/denetleyen fiili k\u0131s\u0131tlama) kald\u0131rmas\u0131ndan sonra ba\u015flayacakt\u0131. Axios, \u00f6nerinin Beyaz Saray\u2019a Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular taraf\u0131ndan iletildi\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberde, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6neriyi de\u011ferlendirip de\u011ferlendirmeyece\u011finin net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Piyasa tepkisinde WTI %0,33 y\u00fckselerek yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 93,70 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (WTI: ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi fiyat\u0131). <\/p>\n
Bu arka planda, ham petrol opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) normal sakin d\u00f6nemlere g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek. 2025\u2019teki blokaj s\u0131ras\u0131nda petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksi OVX (petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) sert y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; sonras\u0131nda gerilemi\u015f olsa da tarihsel dip seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu, piyasada ani arz \u015foku (beklenmedik tedarik kesintisi) ihtimalinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 yeni bir gerilime kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedge: riski dengelemek) veya y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in vadeli (uzun vadeli) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir. 95 ya da 100 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce uzak g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de diplomasi yeniden t\u0131kan\u0131rsa ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olabilir. Bu t\u00fcr i\u015flemler, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (tan\u0131ml\u0131 zarar) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketten yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011frilik (skew: ayn\u0131 vadede art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne daha pahal\u0131 fiyatlama) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) call\u2019lar, benzer \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) g\u00f6re belirgin primle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften \u00e7ok s\u0131\u00e7rama riskini \u00f6nemsedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu e\u011frilik, spread (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131\/pozisyonlarla kurulan kombinasyon) kuranlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek risk alabilen ve durumun sakin kalaca\u011f\u0131na inananlar i\u00e7in, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak nakitle put satmak) veya kredi spread\u2019i (credit spread: prim toplayan, iki opsiyonla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) cazip olabilir. B\u00f6ylece y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k primini toplarken en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryonun ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131na oynan\u0131r. Ancak jeopolitik bir de\u011fi\u015fim riski bu pozisyonlar\u0131 daha tehlikeli k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA: ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) son verilerine g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda. Bu, arz\u0131n g\u00f6rece s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 bir aksakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 absorbe edecek \u201ctamponunun\u201d daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bo\u011faz\u0131n birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131 bile, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha sert etki yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz i\u00e7in kritik diplomasi: \u0130ran, bo\u011faz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n biti\u015fi hedefiyle ABD\u2019ye ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nerdi. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek; WTI 93,70 dolar, yukar\u0131 risk fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45500\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}