USD\/CAD, Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3660 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Parite, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CAD) y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan destek bulmas\u0131yla geriledi. Kanada, ABD\u2019ye en \u00e7ok ham petrol satan \u00fclkedir.<\/p>\n
WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi), \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn %2,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 arz (piyasaya sunulan miktar) endi\u015feleriyle y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Jared Kushner ve Steve Witkoff\u2019a g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere arabuluculuk yapan Pakistan\u2019a yap\u0131lacak seyahati iptal etmelerini s\u00f6yledi. Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok \u015fey teklif etti\u011fini ama yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtirken, \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ctehdit veya abluka alt\u0131nda dayat\u0131lan m\u00fczakerelere\u201d girmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Stratejik bir su yolundan ge\u00e7i\u015f, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kontrolleri ve ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131 (donanmayla uygulanan giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131) nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu durum, kesintinin uzayabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rarak ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ikinci g\u00fcnde de gerilemesiyle de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu tablo, ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131) zorlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: \u0130srail ve Hizbullah, ABD arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla uzat\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k s\u00fcre boyunca sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u201cG\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi (krizde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) y\u00fckselse de dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019de 1,3700 \u00e7evresinde tan\u0131d\u0131k bir \u00e7eki\u015fme izleniyor. Emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 (fiyat\u0131 hammaddeye duyarl\u0131) Kanada Dolar\u0131, WTI ham petrol\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131ndan destek al\u0131yor. Jeopolitik risklerin s\u00fcrmesiyle WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 84,50 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, piyasada iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te benzer d\u00f6nemlerde, ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 ve deniz ablukalar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlarda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanma) h\u0131zla y\u00fckseltti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu \u00f6rnekler, jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n enerji piyasas\u0131nda ekonomik verilerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz riskleri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan farkl\u0131 olarak, ABD Dolar\u0131 bug\u00fcn daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemine sahip. Bunun temel nedeni, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r: ABD\u2019de enflasyonun %3,5 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirimine gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Kanada\u2019da enflasyonun %2,9\u2019a gerilemesi ise BoC\u2019nin (Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha erken faiz indirebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; bu da CAD\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n ayn\u0131 anda etkili olmas\u0131, USD\/CAD\u2019de ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlan\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok, sert bir hareket ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon almak daha temkinli olabilir. Straddle veya strangle (opsiyonlarla, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler) al\u0131m\u0131, petrol\u00fcn pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi ya da faiz politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 itmesi halinde k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca odak ham petrol piyasas\u0131nda olmal\u0131; as\u0131l tetikleyici buras\u0131. WTI vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest: kapanmam\u0131\u015f toplam s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131) son bir ayda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131; bu, piyasaya fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisiyle para girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 90 dolar \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (call: y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 hak veren opsiyon) belirgin hareket var; bu da ek arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku USD\/CAD\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor! WTI arz endi\u015feleriyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenince CAD destek buldu, parite 1,3660\u2019a geriledi. Fed-BoC ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve jeopolitik risk, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlanan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; opsiyonlarda k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimali \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45498\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}