\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc USD\/CNY (ABD dolar\u0131\/\u00c7in yuan\u0131) i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck referans kuru 6,8579 olarak belirledi. Bu seviye, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,8674\u2019l\u00fck referans\u0131n alt\u0131nda (yani yuan\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc), ancak Reuters\u2019\u0131n 6,8282\u2019lik piyasa tahmininden belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha y\u00fcksek (yani tahmine g\u00f6re yuan daha zay\u0131f).<\/p>\n
PBoC\u2019nin temel para politikas\u0131 hedefleri; fiyat istikrar\u0131 (kur istikrar\u0131 dahil) ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedir. Ayr\u0131ca finansal piyasalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve geli\u015ftirilmesi gibi finansal reformlar \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
PBoC, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti devletine ait oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z (\u00f6zerk) bir kurum de\u011fildir. Devlet Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan aday g\u00f6sterilen \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi Komitesi Sekreteri, bankan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc etkiler; Pan Gongsheng hem bu g\u00f6revi hem de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k (guvern\u00f6r) g\u00f6revini y\u00fcr\u00fctmektedir.<\/p>\n
PBoC\u2019nin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u00e7lar aras\u0131nda; 7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan k\u0131sa vadeli likidite \u00e7ekip geri verme i\u015flemlerinde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz), Orta Vadeli Kredi \u0130mkan\u0131 \u2013 MLF (bankalara orta vadeli fonlama sa\u011flama arac\u0131), d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 \u2013 RRR (bankalar\u0131n mevduat\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131nda tutma zorunlulu\u011fu) bulunur. Kredi Ana Faizi \u2013 LPR (bankalar\u0131n kredi fiyatlamas\u0131nda temel ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterge faiz), kredi, konut kredisi ve mevduat faizlerini ve ayr\u0131ca yuan\u0131n kurunu etkiler.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de 19 \u00f6zel banka vard\u0131r. En b\u00fcy\u00fckleri, Tencent ve Ant Group destekli dijital kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131 WeBank ve MYbank\u2019t\u0131r. Tamamen \u00f6zel yerli kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131na izin veren politika 2014\u2019te ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), yuan\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc referansa g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ancak piyasa tahminlerine g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha zay\u0131f belirleyerek kontroll\u00fc bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bunu, i\u00e7 ekonomiyi desteklerken panik yaratmamak i\u00e7in dikkatle ayarlanm\u0131\u015f bir ad\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu hamle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yuan\u0131n kademeli olarak zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin verme e\u011filimini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu ad\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor: \u00c7in\u2019in 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %4,8 ile resmi %5,0 hedefinin biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Mart ihracat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) beklenmedik \u015fekilde %1,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu yumu\u015fama, PBoC\u2019nin yuan\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f y\u00f6nlendirmesi i\u00e7in net bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle PBoC\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in RRR gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullanmas\u0131n\u0131, hatta \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay bir indirim yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m, yurti\u00e7i likiditeyi (piyasadaki para miktar\u0131n\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131r; ancak yuan \u00fczerinde ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 da yaratabilir. Bu durum ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7ar; b\u00f6ylece yuan cinsinden varl\u0131klar g\u00f6reli olarak daha az cazip hale gelir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar (opsiyon, vadeli gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu tablo, USD\/CNY kurunun y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in 6,95 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (opsiyonda i\u015flem yap\u0131lacak kur seviyesi) yak\u0131n USD\/CNY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; kur y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) alman\u0131n temkinli bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu y\u00f6ntem, olas\u0131 yuan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken riski \u00f6nceden belirler ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar; bu da PBoC\u2019nin piyasaya m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7mi\u015fi nedeniyle \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut durumda USD\/CNH (offshore yuan; \u00c7in ana karas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %4,5 gibi g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k, opsiyon stratejilerini nispeten ucuz hale getirir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/CNY\u2019de kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynarken maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in call spread (bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 seviyeden ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti azaltan opsiyon stratejisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; bu, beklenen trendden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yararlanman\u0131n bir yoludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PBoC, USD\/CNY fixini 6,8579\u2019a \u00e7ekti: Yuan referansa g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, beklentiye g\u00f6re zay\u0131f. Yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ihracat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc RRR indirimi, kademeli yuan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 6,95 call stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45495\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}