WTI haftaya art\u0131da ba\u015flad\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131 ve 94,00 dolar\u0131n orta seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. K\u00fcresel arz endi\u015feleriyle g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,0 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, el\u00e7iler Steve Witkoff ve Jared Kushner\u2019\u0131n planlanan \u0130slamabad ziyaretini iptal ederken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araqchi Pakistan\u2019a geldi. G\u00fcndemde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 (bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7i\u015fin engellenmesi) gibi konular var; bu da jeopolitik riskin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki trafik, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hareket k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde aksad\u0131. Bu durum fiyatlar\u0131 desteklerken, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 (dolar\u0131n di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131) ek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 2026\u2019da faizleri mevcut aral\u0131kta tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu beklenti dolar\u0131 destekledi ve dolarla fiyatlanan emtialara (petrol gibi ham maddeler) olan deste\u011fi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI, ABD ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in bir referans fiyatt\u0131r (k\u0131yas fiyat). \u201cLight\u201d (hafif: yo\u011funlu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) ve \u201csweet\u201d (tatl\u0131: k\u00fck\u00fcrt oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) olarak da tan\u0131mlan\u0131r ve Cushing hub \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r (Cushing: ABD\u2019de \u00f6nemli teslimat\/depolama merkezi). Fiyat; arz-talep dengesi, jeopolitik kesintiler, OPEC kararlar\u0131 (petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkeler grubu), ABD Dolar\u0131 hareketleri ve API ile EIA\u2019n\u0131n haftal\u0131k stok raporlar\u0131ndan etkilenir. API (Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc) ve EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) verileri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birbirine yak\u0131n seyreder.<\/p>\n
WTI 94 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki mevcut jeopolitik gerilimin fiyatlar\u0131n ana belirleyicisi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ilerleme olmamas\u0131, bu arz riskinin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ortadan kalkmayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehdit kritik \u00f6nemde. Bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol ge\u00e7iyor; bu, k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019ine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Uzayan bir abluka fiyatlar\u0131 kolayca 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma i\u00e7in deniz kuvvetlerinin hareketleri ve iki taraf\u0131n diplomatik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131, petrol i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131 unsuru. Mart T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi\/enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,5 gelince piyasa Fed\u2019in 2026 boyunca faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131. Bu para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutabilir ve k\u0131sa vadede sert bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Stok verileri ise y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini (bullish: art\u0131\u015f beklentisi) destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu, beklentilerin tersine 3,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (inventory draw: stoklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131) g\u00f6sterdi. Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak rapor izlenecek; benzer bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 95 dolar seviyesindeki \u00f6nemli dirence (resistance: y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, May\u0131s ve Haziran vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler i\u00e7in 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak daha temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece 95 dolar\u0131n psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flanabilir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sorunu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmezse 98-100 dolar band\u0131na hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda ilk deniz ablukas\u0131nda fiyat\u0131n 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da, uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 zarardan korumak i\u00e7in (hedging: riskten korunma) \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n uza\u011f\u0131nda, \u015fimdilik de\u011feri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ile koruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek faydal\u0131 olabilir. Ani bir diplomatik ilerleme sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe neden olabilir; bu ihtimal g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski WTI\u2019yi yeniden yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor! Fiyat 94 dolar alt\u0131nda toparlan\u0131rken arz endi\u015fesi ve stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor, 100 dolar senaryosu masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45493\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}