ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Fox News\u2019e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u0130ran\u2019la bir sava\u015f\u0131n yak\u0131nda sona erece\u011fini ve ABD\u2019nin kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Haberde, bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la konular\u0131n do\u011frudan ele al\u0131nabilece\u011fi Pakistan\u2019a g\u00f6nderilmesi planlanan bir heyeti iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Trump, bir olay\u0131n kendisini \u201czafere\u201d gitmekten al\u0131koymayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile temas kurabilece\u011fini ifade etti. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin telefonla yap\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, baz\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131 temaslar\u0131n \u201cmakul\u201d, baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ise olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cak\u0131ll\u0131ca\u201d davranmas\u0131n\u0131 umdu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca NATO\u2019nun \u0130ran konusunda ABD\u2019yi desteklemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer malzemesine el konulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u00c7in\u2019in \u201cdaha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini\u201d ve \u201c\u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olabilece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca Ukrayna hakk\u0131nda Vladimir Putin ve Volodimir Zelenskiy ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,25 art\u0131\u015fla 94,30 dolarda. WTI, ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen bir referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr; Cushing (Oklahoma) teslim noktas\u0131 \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Piyasada genellikle \u201chafif\u201d (yo\u011funlu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) ve \u201ctatl\u0131\u201d (k\u00fck\u00fcrt oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; bu da i\u015flenmesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak arz-talep dengesi belirler. Buna ek olarak jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, OPEC kararlar\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131 etkili olur. API (American Petroleum Institute \u2013 Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc) ve EIA (Energy Information Administration \u2013 ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan haftal\u0131k stok verileri fiyatlar\u0131 oynatabilir; bu iki raporun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 zaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019inde birbirine %1 i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la yak\u0131n zamanda ba\u015flay\u0131p \u201ckazan\u0131mla\u201d sonu\u00e7lanacak bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan s\u00f6z etmesi, jeopolitik risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselten \u00f6nemli bir sinyal. Bu durum, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan ge\u00e7en ham petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan tehdit eder ve bu endi\u015fe piyasaya yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Artan belirsizlik fiyatlan\u0131rken WTI\u2019n\u0131n varil fiyat\u0131 95 dolara yakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, enerji piyasas\u0131nda sert fiyat hareketleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir. Bu ortamda \u201coynakl\u0131k alma\u201d stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar: \u00d6rne\u011fin WTI vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak ya da \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete oynama) gibi.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki tepkisi hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131. Bu jeopolitik \u015fok, Brent petrol\u00fc haftalar i\u00e7inde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; askeri gerilimlerin enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zla etkileyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Mevcut s\u00f6ylem, diplomasi ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa benzer, hatta daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131nda arz zaten s\u0131k\u0131; bu da olas\u0131 bir arz kesintisinin etkisini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr. Olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ge\u00e7i\u015fi riske sokabilir. Ayr\u0131ca EIA\u2019n\u0131n son raporunda, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta beklenti d\u0131\u015f\u0131 2,5 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da kesintiyi kar\u015f\u0131layacak \u201ctamponun\u201d s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
OPEC+ \u00fcyelerinin tepkisi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. OPEC+ (OPEC ve Rusya gibi ortak \u00fclkeler) d\u00fcnyadaki anlaml\u0131 \u201cyedek \u00fcretim kapasitesinin\u201d (gerekti\u011finde h\u0131zla devreye al\u0131nabilecek ek \u00fcretim) b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 elinde tutuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde verecekleri mesajlar, piyasay\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirip sakinle\u015ftiremeyeceklerini g\u00f6sterebilir. \u00dcretimi h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131rmakta zorlanacaklar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir sinyal, y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Trump\u2019tan \u0130ran mesaj\u0131: \u201cSava\u015f yak\u0131nda biter, ABD kazan\u0131r.\u201d Jeopolitik risk artarken WTI 94,3 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz endi\u015fesi b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k priminin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45490"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45490\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}