AUD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 0,7145 civar\u0131nda geriledi. Avustralya dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken ve piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la do\u011frudan temas\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilecek Pakistan\u2019a bir heyet ziyaretini iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yeniden ba\u015flatma giri\u015fimleri duraksad\u0131. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tehdit ya da abluka alt\u0131nda dayat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc m\u00fczakerelere girmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD arabuluculu\u011funda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 hafta daha durdurmay\u0131 hedefleyen s\u00fcrenin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u0130srail ve Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla ate\u015fkes de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. S\u00fcren gerilim, ABD dolar\u0131na talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya Mart T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinde. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (genel enflasyon) Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi, \u015eubat\u2019taki %3,7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentinin \u00fczerinde bir veri, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) 5 May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Baz puan, faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fimi ifade eder; 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f, faizin %0,25 y\u00fckselmesi demektir. Bu geli\u015fme, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyrini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi (riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara ge\u00e7i\u015f) ABD dolar\u0131na sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. ABD Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Ticaret Komisyonu\u2019nun (CFTC) verilerine g\u00f6re, spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bekleyerek ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n toplam\u0131) son iki haftada %15 artt\u0131; bu, Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir hava olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri kur gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 0,7100 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Put opsiyonu, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 vererek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avustralya T\u00dcFE verisi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir sonu\u00e7, RBA\u2019y\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na zorlayabilir. Bir haftal\u0131k AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye, 2025\u2019teki piyasa sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu durum, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen \u201cuzun straddle\u201d stratejisini (ayn\u0131 vade ve fiyattan hem al\u0131m\/call hem sat\u0131m\/put opsiyonu alma) g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 da hesaba katmak gerekiyor; \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir s\u00fcrpriz (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek ya da daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131) Avustralya enflasyon verisinin kur \u00fczerindeki olumlu etkisini kolayca g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir. 2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc (faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) RBA faiz art\u0131rsa bile Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle \u201cbear put spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan put opsiyonu al\u0131p satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir ve 0,7000 destek seviyesine do\u011fru hareketi hedeflerken riski kontrol alt\u0131nda tutar. Destek seviyesi, fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girebildi\u011fi b\u00f6lgeyi ifade eder.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya<\/a>\u00a0ba\u015flay\u0131n. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/USD 0,7145\u2019e gerilerken Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba Avustralya T\u00dcFE ve Fed karar\u0131 odakta: oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131, 0,7100 alt\u0131 risk, opsiyon stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}