Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), hedef ters repo faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bankalardan k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel politika faizi) 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %4,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu, Eyl\u00fcl 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f oldu. Bloomberg anketine g\u00f6re piyasada art\u0131\u015f beklentisi %50-%50 b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu ad\u0131m, enflasyon beklentilerini (halk ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki enflasyon tahmini) sabitlemeyi ve ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerini (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yans\u0131y\u0131p enflasyonu yeniden beslemesi) s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefledi. BSP daha \u00f6nce 2018 ve 2022\u2019de, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %2-4 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE, Mart 2026\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. BSP Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Remolona, 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da masada oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
BSP, mevcut duru\u015fun orta vadede toparlanmay\u0131 (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131) desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fini belirtti. Y\u0131l geneli b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %4,6\u2019dan %4,3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu oran h\u00fck\u00fcmetin %5-6 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
BSP; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n tedarik zincirinde (mal ve hizmetlerin \u00fcretimden teslimata uzanan ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) aksama yaratmas\u0131, kamu harcamas\u0131 \u00f6demelerinin (b\u00fct\u00e7eden yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131n fiilen aktar\u0131lmas\u0131) yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve yolsuzluk iddialar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcven kayb\u0131 gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret etti. Maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n (vergi ve kamu harcamalar\u0131 yoluyla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen politika) b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
BSP; ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetleri ve g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 bekliyor ve bunun \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE kalemlerine (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) de yay\u0131labilece\u011fini belirtiyor. \u00dccret belirleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n arz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu (maliyet \u015foklar\u0131yla olu\u015fan enflasyon) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentilerini izliyor.<\/p>\n
Peso, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda b\u00f6lgesel benzer para birimlerinin gerisinde kald\u0131; Filipinler, Orta Do\u011fu enerji fiyatlar\u0131na daha a\u00e7\u0131k durumda.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 bunun yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu i\u015faret etti; ba\u015fkan\u0131n 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f se\u00e7ene\u011fini de anmas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6nlendirme (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek ad\u0131mlara dair piyasa beklentisini y\u00f6netmesi) anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131tman\u0131n bir yolu, 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k Filipin pesosu faiz takaslar\u0131nda (interest rate swap: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6demek (pay fixed: sabit faiz taraf\u0131nda yer almak) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2022\u2019deki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde enflasyon birka\u00e7 ay daha y\u00fckselmi\u015f, %8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak zirve yapm\u0131\u015f ve BSP\u2019yi art arda faiz art\u0131rmaya zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mart 2026\u2019da enflasyonun %4,1\u2019e gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerse bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn uzayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Normalde faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bir para birimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; ancak Peso\u2019da bu etki g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ana nedeni d\u0131\u015f etkenler; \u00f6zellikle \u00fclkenin enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel referans ham petrol fiyat\u0131) varil fiyat\u0131 110 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, ithalat faturas\u0131 kabar\u0131yor ve para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen Peso i\u00e7in daha zay\u0131f seyir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Peso\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; hedef, 2022 sonundaki 59,00 seviyelerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %4,3\u2019e indirmesi ve maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar da bu olumsuz alg\u0131y\u0131 besleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz hamle: Filipinler Merkez Bankas\u0131 BSP, ters repo faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131p %4,50\u2019ye \u00e7ekti; Mart\u2019ta enflasyon %4,1. Remolona 50 bp sinyali verdi; peso, petrol \u015foku bask\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45485\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}