OCBC stratejistleri Sim Moh Siong ve Christopher Wong, USD\/TWD\u2019de (ABD Dolar\u0131\/Tayvan Dolar\u0131) teknik bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bunun da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesindeki \u00e7\u0131kmaza ba\u011fl\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzak durmas\u0131) ile ili\u015fkili oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Hareketi k\u0131sa vadeli bir \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d (k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itilmesi) olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yorlar. Bunun, \u201cd\u00fc\u015fen kama\u201d formasyonu (fiyat\u0131n daralan bant i\u00e7inde d\u00fc\u015fmesi; \u00e7o\u011fu zaman k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali) ile uyumlu oldu\u011funu ve yak\u0131n vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret edebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. USD\/TWD son olarak 31,57 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
Direnci 31,60\u2019ta (100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama: son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; trend i\u00e7in referans seviye) ve 31,75\u2019te (21 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar) g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Deste\u011fi 31,40\/45, 31,20 (2026 dip seviyesi), ard\u0131ndan 30,90\u2019da (200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) izliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f (fiyat y\u00fckselince satmay\u0131 tercih etme) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyorlar. Tayvan hisselerine yabanc\u0131 para giri\u015fi (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n net al\u0131m\u0131) ve teknoloji d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcyle yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ba\u011flant\u0131ya dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar. TWD-TWSE 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayan korelasyonun (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket etme derecesi; 1\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a birlikte hareket artar) 0,90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde Tayvan Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fini ekliyorlar. Ayr\u0131ca yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat ivmesine i\u015faret ediyorlar.<\/p>\n
USD\/TWD\u2019deki son y\u00fckseli\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00fcndemine ili\u015fkin genel piyasa temkininin (risk almama e\u011filimi) etkisiyle olu\u015fan k\u0131sa vadeli bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasalar \u015fu anda haziranda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi ihtimalini %40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor (piyasa beklentisini fiyatlara yans\u0131tmas\u0131); bu da dolar\u0131n \u015fimdilik y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu teknik toparlanman\u0131n beklenen bir hareket oldu\u011fu ve f\u0131rsat sundu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye ra\u011fmen bu y\u00fckseli\u015fte sat\u0131\u015f tercih ediliyor. Sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 i\u00e7in izlenen kritik diren\u00e7ler 31,60\u2019taki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ve yukar\u0131da 31,75 civar\u0131. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Tayvan Dolar\u0131\u2019na dayal\u0131 temel tablo (ekonomik\/sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131 gerek\u00e7eleri) korundu\u011fu i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar bu seviyelerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu satmay\u0131 (prim geliri i\u00e7in; kur y\u00fckselirse risk artar) veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 (kurun gerilemesinden kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
TWD\u2019nin temel deste\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu, para birimi ile Tayvan Borsas\u0131 (TWSE) aras\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek korelasyonda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tayvan Finansal Denetim Komisyonu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde net yabanc\u0131 para giri\u015finin 15 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131. Bu e\u011filim, k\u00fcresel sermayenin Tayvan\u2019\u0131n teknoloji g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sermaye ak\u0131m\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 ihracat d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcndeki (AI talebinin ihracat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fla destekleniyor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, Tayvan\u2019\u0131n elektronik bile\u015fen ihracat\u0131 Mart 2026\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %22 artt\u0131 (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re). K\u00fcresel AI talebinin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi bu ivmenin zamanla TWD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da benzer bir tablo izlendi; jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar her azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda TWD g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc TWD beklentisiyle opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullanarak pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve dolar\u0131n genel g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olu\u015fabilecek hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/TWD\u2019de teknik toparlanma: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d yaratt\u0131. D\u00fc\u015fen kama yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali veriyor; 31,60-31,75 diren\u00e7, 31,40-30,90 destek. Y\u00fckseli\u015fte sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45484\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}