\u00c7in Yuan\u0131 (CNY) faizleri son bir haftada daha dikle\u015fti (k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerle uzun vadeli faizler aras\u0131ndaki fark artt\u0131). Bu hareket, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkese ve y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda makro verilerin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesine ba\u011flan\u0131yor. \u00c7in ekonomisi 1\u00c7\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi d\u0131\u015f talep (ihracat kaynakl\u0131 istek) ve sanayi faaliyetindeki toparlanma destekledi.<\/p>\n
Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI: imalat ve hizmetlerde yeni sipari\u015fler, \u00fcretim ve istihdam gibi kalemlerden t\u00fcretilen, 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eden anket g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da 50,3 bekleniyor; ayr\u0131ca daha s\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klanan g\u00fcncel g\u00f6stergelerde de g\u00fc\u00e7lenme var. \u00c7imento klinker (\u00e7imento \u00fcretiminde ara \u00fcr\u00fcn) ve elektrik ark oca\u011f\u0131 (elektrikle \u00e7elik \u00fcreten f\u0131r\u0131n) kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 2,4 puan ve 1,0 puan artt\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7elik fabrikalar\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma oranlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyat \u015fokunun etkileri \u015fu ana kadar a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde. Petrol asfalt tesislerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma oranlar\u0131 gerilerken, PTA (Safla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Tereftalik Asit: polyester \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan temel kimyasal) kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 Mart\u2019taki %89,4\u2019ten Nisan ay\u0131 \u015fu ana kadar %75,7\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Karada (onshore: \u00c7in ana karas\u0131ndaki piyasalar) tahvil talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Northbound Bond Connect (Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in ana karas\u0131 tahvillerine eri\u015fimini sa\u011flayan kanal) i\u015flem hacmi Mart\u2019ta rekor 1,22 trilyon CNY\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama hacim 55,6 milyar CNY ile zirve yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (offshore: ana kara d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa) ak\u0131mlar da s\u00fcrd\u00fc. EPFR verilerine g\u00f6re (fon giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen veri seti) \u00c7in tahvil fonlar\u0131 Nisan\u2019\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda 1,6 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 giri\u015f ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Genel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi \u201cistikrarl\u0131 ama dengesiz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da temkinli bir politika \u00e7izgisini destekliyor. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) likidite operasyonlar\u0131yla (piyasaya para verme\/\u00e7ekme i\u015flemleri) destekleyici tutumunu korumas\u0131, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz indirimlerine gitmemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6nemde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %5\u2019lik 1\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisiyle CNY faiz e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bunu, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 sanayi aktivitesi ve jeopolitik gerilimin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 desteklemi\u015fti. Bu d\u00f6nem, ekonomideki temel g\u00fcce net bir i\u015faret vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k: \u00c7in\u2019in 1\u00c7 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %4,8 ile resmi hedefin biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ancak Nisan ay\u0131 resmi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 50,4 ile geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde (50 \u00fczeri) kal\u0131yor; bu da sanayi \u00e7ekirde\u011finin istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yani genel h\u0131z ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerinden yava\u015flasa da dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
PBoC, 2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir politika duru\u015fu beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu ay temel kredi faizlerini sabit tutarken piyasa i\u015flemleriyle sistemde yeterli likidite sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu, faiz e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadesini (k\u0131sa vadeli faizler) daha istikrarl\u0131 tutabilir ve piyasada ani fonlama s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadede bor\u00e7 bulman\u0131n zorla\u015f\u0131p pahalanmas\u0131) riskini azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Karadaki tahvil talebi sa\u011flam kalsa da Mart 2025\u2019teki rekor d\u00fczeyde yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 giri\u015flerini bug\u00fcn g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi verilerine g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fleri daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Mart sonu itibar\u0131yla karadaki tahvillerde 3,9 trilyon CNY tutuyor. Bu, k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha se\u00e7ici davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve uzun vadeli faizlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n istikrar tercihinin net olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yuan\u0131n ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) 3 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda %3,8 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CNY straddle veya strangle sat\u0131p (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak prim toplama; fiyat\u0131n dar bir bantta kalmas\u0131na oynanan stratejiler) prim geliri elde etmek bu ortamda cazip g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Kurun s\u0131k\u0131 y\u00f6netilmesi, beklenmedik b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket riskini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
PBoC\u2019nin istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131, e\u011frinin kademeli dikle\u015fmesini destekliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar uzun vadeli CNY faiz swaplar\u0131nda (faiz takas\u0131: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) \u201cpayer\u201d pozisyonu (sabit faiz \u00f6deyip de\u011fi\u015fken faiz alma; faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine oynama) al\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadelerde \u201creceiver\u201d (sabit faiz alma; faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131na oynama) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu pozisyon, uzun vadeli faizler k\u0131sa vadeye g\u00f6re y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar ve ekonomideki dengesiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de CNY getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fiyor: ate\u015fkes, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI ve sanayi toparlanmas\u0131 etkili. Enerji \u015foku se\u00e7ili sekt\u00f6rlerde. Tahvil talebi s\u00fcrse de yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; PBoC temkinli, b\u00fcy\u00fck indirim yok.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45483\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}