USD\/CHF Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi ancak haftay\u0131 %0,35\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da tamamlayarak 0,7841 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin hafta sonu yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine dair g\u00fcvenin artmas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 0,7800-0,7900 band\u0131nda yataya yak\u0131n seyre (konsolidasyon: fiyat\u0131n belirli bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish: a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filim) ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendde. Bu durum, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam edebilece\u011fine dair sinyal veriyor.<\/p>\n
Parite dokuz g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi olan 0,7877\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fc ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi (momentum) sonras\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. 0,7840\u2019taki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) civar\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ve 0,7863\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA direncini (diren\u00e7: y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) a\u015famad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite zay\u0131flarsa ilk destek (destek: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma beklenen seviye) 0,7800. Bunun alt\u0131nda 17 Nisan dip seviyesi 0,7775, ard\u0131ndan 10 Mart g\u00fcnl\u00fck log seviyesi 0,7748 (log \u00f6l\u00e7ek: fiyat hareketini oransal g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7ek), ve 27 \u015eubat dibi 0,7672 izlenir.<\/p>\n
100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA yeniden a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,7900\u2019de diren\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. 0,7900 \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lma (k\u0131r\u0131lma: seviyenin net \u015fekilde ge\u00e7ilmesi) 0,7936\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirir, ard\u0131ndan 0,8000 seviyesi izlenir.<\/p>\n
Ana belirleyici, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) farkl\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yollar\u0131 oldu. ABD\u2019de enflasyon beklenenden kal\u0131c\u0131 seyretti. Mart 2026\u2019daki son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in faizleri \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d tutma mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu beklenti, ABD dolar\u0131na destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k SNB, ge\u00e7en ay faiz indiren ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan biri oldu; \u00fclkede enflasyon %1,0 seviyesine geriledi. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana USD\/CHF i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturdu. \u0130ki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n (faiz fark\u0131: bir para birimini di\u011ferine g\u00f6re cazip k\u0131lan getiri fark\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana tema olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, paritede uzun y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. 0,9200 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, trend s\u00fcrerse yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanabilir. Bu seviye hem psikolojik hem de teknik \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak parite bu y\u0131l g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in riskler de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. 0,9050 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, merkez bankas\u0131 mesajlar\u0131nda ani de\u011fi\u015fim ya da k\u00fcresel jeopolitik gerilimin beklenmedik \u015fekilde azalmas\u0131 durumunda korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik koruma) sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 riski y\u00f6netirken olas\u0131 kazan\u00e7lara a\u00e7\u0131k kalmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortamda, bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde z\u0131mni volatilitenin (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu durum, fiyat hareketinden yararlanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda call ve put birlikte almak: sert hareket beklentisi, y\u00f6n belirsiz) son d\u00f6nemdeki bant hareketinden net bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Kritik unsur, merkez bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF gerilese de haftay\u0131 0,7841\u2019de art\u0131da kapatt\u0131; piyasa ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine odakland\u0131. 0,78\u20130,79 band\u0131nda yatay, RSI bearish. Destek 0,7800; diren\u00e7 0,7900\/0,7936. Fed-SNB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 longlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45482\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}