TD Securities stratejistleri, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda gecelik faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 (Overnight Rate: Bankalar\u0131n birbirine bir gecelik vadeyle verdi\u011fi borca uygulanan politika faizi) %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da bu seviyeyi korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Mesaj\u0131n daha dengeli, ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin, Banka\u2019n\u0131n Nisan Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu\u2019nda (Monetary Policy Report: Enflasyon, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve risklere ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel tahminlerin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapor) enflasyon tahminini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesini bekliyorlar. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (core inflation: Enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ve GSYH (GDP: Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) tahminlerinde ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar; Banka\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Banka\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerini iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc (two-sided: Hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde olas\u0131l\u0131k var) tan\u0131mlamas\u0131n\u0131, bunun da petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 (Hormuz Strait closure: Petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kilit ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131; kapanma arz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131p fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilir) ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar. Ayr\u0131ca Banka\u2019n\u0131n, devam eden USMCA (ABD-Meksika-Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131; Kuzey Amerika serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131) yeniden m\u00fczakerelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 risklere odaklanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Son T\u00dcFE\u2019deki (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizi faizleri sabit tutma gerek\u00e7esi olarak g\u00f6steriyorlar. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in %2,61\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; ancak sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kademeli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyelere ra\u011fmen 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faizi %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar %2,61 beklentisi abart\u0131l\u0131 bulunuyor; bunun Kanada politikas\u0131ndaki ger\u00e7ek bir de\u011fi\u015fimden \u00e7ok ABD piyasalar\u0131ndaki hareketlerden etkilendi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu da, gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 bu sab\u0131rl\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan Mart 2026 enflasyon verisi %2,1 ile %2,4\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 man\u015fet enflasyonu (headline inflation: Enerji ve g\u0131da dahil genel enflasyon) ge\u00e7ici olarak yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekse de, BoC\u2019nin bu s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6rmemesi bekleniyor. Bu da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in e\u015fi\u011fin olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcndeki (WTI: ABD referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) son y\u00fckseli\u015fin varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Banka\u2019n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015funu destekleyen iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fcksek fiyatlar Kanada\u2019n\u0131n enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne destek olurken, k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in maliyeti art\u0131rarak (adeta \u201cgizli vergi\u201d etkisiyle) di\u011fer ihracat kalemlerine talebi zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu denge, BoC\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca petrol \u015fokuna bakarak h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, s\u00fcren USMCA yeniden m\u00fczakereleri. Washington\u2019dan gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n s\u00fcreci yava\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu tablo, 2025 sonundaki ortamdan farkl\u0131: O d\u00f6nemde piyasa, hafif durgunluk endi\u015feleriyle faiz indirimlerini fiyatl\u0131yordu. Mevcut istikrar olumlu olsa da, d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 riskler Banka\u2019y\u0131 bekle-g\u00f6r \u00e7izgisinde tutabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoC\u2019de \u201csabit faiz\u201d senaryosu g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: TD Securities, Nisan\u2019da gecelik faizin %2,25\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 2026 boyunca korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; enerji \u015foku ge\u00e7ici, USMCA ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 riskler iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45478"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45478\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}