ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu (CFTC) verileri, S&P 500\u2019de net spek\u00fclatif (NC) pozisyonlar\u0131n -110,1 bine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki de\u011fer -115,8 bindi.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin S&P 500\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131klar\u0131 \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flemler) azaltmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, piyasaya h\u00e2kim olan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu hen\u00fcz net bir y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali de\u011fil; ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki inanc\u0131n (\u201cshort\u201d taraftaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n) azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren a\u00e7\u0131k bir i\u015faret.<\/p>\n
Pozisyonlardaki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, Mart 2026\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanan son verilerin \u201c\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun\u201d (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,2\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesiyle geldi. Bu durum, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha sert ad\u0131mlar ataca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131. Buna tepki olarak ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri (\u201ctahvil getirileri\u201d; tahvilin piyasadaki faizi) son zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekildi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi \u015fu anda %4,5\u2019in alt\u0131nda. Bu da, ilk \u00e7eyrek boyunca bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalan hisse de\u011ferlemelerine (hisselerin fiyat\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2r ve faiz gibi unsurlara g\u00f6re pahal\u0131\/ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi) bir miktar nefes ald\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
2026 1. \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o sezonunun ortas\u0131nday\u0131z. Sonu\u00e7lar, \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketlerinde, beklenenden daha iyi geliyor. S&P 500 \u015firketlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019\u0131 bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015fken, \u201ckarma (blended) k\u00e2r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi\u201d (a\u00e7\u0131klanan bilan\u00e7o sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ile hen\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klamayanlar i\u00e7in tahminlerin birlikte hesaplanmas\u0131) %3,5 art\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor ve beklentileri a\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket performans\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa pozisyon kapatmas\u0131na (daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131lan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemleri geri alarak sonland\u0131rmas\u0131na) temel bir gerek\u00e7e sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler\u201d a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem), bu tablo \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d \u00fczerinde (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. VIX endeksinin (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) Mart\u2019ta 20\u2019nin \u00fczerindeyken son d\u00f6nemde 17,5 civar\u0131na geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu da \u201cuzun oynakl\u0131k\u201d i\u015flemlerini (dalgalanma art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlar) daha az cazip hale getiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa seviyesinin alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) satarak prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; b\u00f6ylece olas\u0131 istikrardan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde de benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f; resesyon endi\u015feleri zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve bu durum yaz aylar\u0131na uzanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme e\u011filiminin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmedi\u011fi izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik sinyal: CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re S&P 500\u2019de net spek\u00fclatif k\u0131sa pozisyon -110,1 bine y\u00fckselerek azald\u0131. Enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, tahvil faizlerindeki geri \u00e7ekilme ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olar VIX\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Short kapatma s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45472\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}