Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.700 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve %0,47 art\u0131\u015fla 4.726 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, olas\u0131 ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda temaslar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberlerinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi\u2019nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130slamabad\u2019da olmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Beyaz Saray, Steve Wytkoff ve Jared Kushner\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri i\u00e7in Cumartesi sabah\u0131 Pakistan\u2019a gidece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlerin ard\u0131ndan WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,50 geriledi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizleri (devletin 10 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) 1,5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,31\u2019e indi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,22 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,57\u2019ye geriledi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n, haftay\u0131 %2,30 kay\u0131pla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) Nisan\u2019da Mart\u2019taki 53,3\u2019ten 49,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, 1978\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye.<\/p>\n
Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,7\u2019ye, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Prime Terminal\u2019in ima etti\u011fi vadeli faiz e\u011frisi (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki politika faizi beklentisini g\u00f6steren fiyatlama), Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) 2026 boyunca faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ilk indirimin ise Temmuz 2027\u2019de gelebilece\u011fini i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.700\u20134.730 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da (100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama; fiyat\u0131n 100 g\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik seviye) 4.729 dolarda. Destekler (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunabildi\u011fi seviyeler) 4.657, 4.600 ve 4.554 dolar; yukar\u0131da izlenen ek seviyeler 4.750, 4.800 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama) olan 4.869 dolar.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f umudu ile i\u00e7eride devam eden ekonomik endi\u015feler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; ham petroldeki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bunu g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve y\u00fcksek kalan enflasyon beklentileri piyasada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fi de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. 2025 boyunca rekor d\u00fczeyde al\u0131mlar s\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu, 2022 ve 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen e\u011filime benziyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l resmi rezervlere 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n eklendi\u011fini bildirdi. Bu, dolara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde stratejik bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Bu s\u00fcrekli talep, diplomatik haberlerle gelebilecek sert sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d niteli\u011fi nedeniyle (sonucun iki u\u00e7lu olmas\u0131), fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket etmesi olas\u0131. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artmas\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin opsiyonla (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kurulan \u201clong straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) gibi y\u00f6ntemler daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. B\u00f6ylece, bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 4.600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na iterse de, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olup fiyat\u0131 4.800 dolara ta\u015f\u0131rsa da f\u0131rsat do\u011fabilir.<\/p>\n
4.700 dolar deste\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, fiyat\u0131 4.554 dolardaki \u201cswing low\u201da (\u00f6nceki dip; k\u0131sa-orta vadeli dip seviye) do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda uzun pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in 4.650 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put (sat\u0131m) opsiyonu almak, ani bir diplomatik uzla\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir. Tersine, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin zora girdi\u011fine dair i\u015faretler, 4.800 dolar direncini hedefleyen call (al\u0131m) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede daha cazip k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n 4.700 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde 4.726\u2019ya t\u0131rmand\u0131; ABD-\u0130ran temaslar\u0131 petrolde sert sat\u0131\u015f, dolarda gerileme getirdi. Ancak hafta %2,3 ekside. Kritik seviyeler: 4.700 destek, 4.729 diren\u00e7; volatiliteye opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45468"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45468\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}