Standard Chartered ekonomistleri Dan Pan ve Steve Englander, ABD Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi\u2019nin (Supreme Court) IEEPA tarifelerini (IEEPA: ulusal acil durum yetkisine dayal\u0131 ticaret vergileri) iptal eden karar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019nin tarife tahsilat\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini inceledi. Buna g\u00f6re, karardan sonra tarife geliri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ancak \u201cLiberation Day\u201d (tarifelerin art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fc) \u00f6ncesindeki seviyelerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Karardan sonraki ilk iki ay olan mart ve nisan i\u00e7in tarife gelirinin her ay yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 milyar dolar olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar. Mevcut tahsilatlar, Liberation Day \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,4 kat seviyesinde. Bu oran, tarifelerin tamamen y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131lan 2025 sonu h\u0131z\u0131nda (mevcut gidi\u015fat\u0131n y\u0131l geneline yay\u0131lmas\u0131) 2024 seviyelerinin 4 kat\u0131ndan fazlayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut h\u0131zla, IEEPA karar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (mevcut ayl\u0131k kayb\u0131n 12 aya \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) gelir kayb\u0131n\u0131 60 milyar dolar olarak tahmin ediyorlar. IEEPA tarifelerinin, ABD toplam tarife gelirinin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu da belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
\u00c7arelerin (ge\u00e7ici d\u00fczenlemeler ve muafiyetler) sona ermesi ve geri \u00f6demelerin (fazla\/yanl\u0131\u015f tahsil edilen tariffelerin iadesi) h\u0131zlanmas\u0131yla daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Karardan sonra devreye al\u0131nan %10\u2019luk Section 122 genel tarife (Section 122: ge\u00e7ici ve geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 ek tarife yetkisi) a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir miktar kapatt\u0131; ancak 150 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 var ve 24 Temmuz 2026\u2019da sona erecek.<\/p>\n
Takvimdeki en kritik tarih 24 Temmuz 2026. Ge\u00e7ici %10\u2019luk Section 122 tarifesi bu tarihte bitiyor. Bu tarife \u00f6nemli bir \u201cge\u00e7ici tampon\u201d g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; yerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fczenleme gelmeden kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, b\u00fct\u00e7ede ani bir bo\u015fluk (fiscal cliff: gelirde bir anda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) yaratabilir ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. Piyasalar\u0131n bu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7ok hassas olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, uzun vadeli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in olas\u0131 yasal d\u00fczenleme tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fla\u015f: ABD Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi\u2019nin IEEPA tarifelerini iptali tahsilat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ama gelirler h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cLiberation Day\u201d \u00f6ncesinin 3,4 kat\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kay\u0131p 60 milyar $. Kritik tarih: 24 Temmuz 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45465\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}