ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc; yeni bir bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi turuna y\u00f6nelik ilerleme olmad\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Trump, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019na may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen her tekneye ate\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 talimat\u0131 verdi. ABD ordusu, ablukay\u0131 delmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan iki petrol s\u00fcper tankerini durdurdu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Politikan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019a tutumunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in bask\u0131 uygulanmas\u0131 olmaya devam etti. Kapanma, artan petrol ve \u00fcretim maliyetleriyle ili\u015fkilendirildi; ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve finansal piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131 riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte ortalama ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 ABD dolar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanan senaryoda, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun ikinci \u00e7eyrekte yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,6 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ise bu y\u0131l %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Rafine yak\u0131t (i\u015flenmi\u015f akaryak\u0131t \u00fcr\u00fcnleri) ve g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu bu tahminlerin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi de belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Durumun Avrupa dahil k\u00fcresel enflasyon etkileri yarataca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi; hisse piyasalar\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (sert d\u00fc\u015fmeden ayakta kalmay\u0131) korursa bunun ABD dolar\u0131 performans\u0131na yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki ABD H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert y\u00fckselince beklenen enflasyon \u015fokunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla ABD\u2019de enflasyon %3,5 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek; bu seviye merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki enerji krizinden kaynaklanan bu kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, piyasalar i\u00e7in temel belirleyici unsur olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde (dayanak fiyat\u0131 petrol gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) odak, Brent ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelenmesiyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00f6netilmesi olmal\u0131; bu seviye 2025 ablukas\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki zirvelerin alt\u0131nda. Jeopolitik risk s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in WTI veya Brent \u00fczerinde al\u0131m spreadi (iki ayr\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla birlikte yap\u0131lan, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren opsiyon stratejisi) almak, olas\u0131 yeni bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir pozisyon alma yolu sunar. Do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckselecek diye tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m) riskli g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k opsiyonlar, riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n performans\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131k seyretti; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve BoE, 2025\u2019te Fed\u2019den daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ad\u0131m att\u0131; bu durum ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve EUR\/USD paritesini (euro\/dolar kuru) 1,10\u2019a do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ancak ABD\u2019de enflasyonun Avrupa\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha yap\u0131\u015fkan (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) olmas\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar beklentisine dayal\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed, faiz indirimlerini benzerlerine k\u0131yasla daha uzun s\u00fcre ertelemek zorunda kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, faiz t\u00fcrevleri (faiz oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u00e7in uygun. Piyasa, 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine dair beklentilerini sert bi\u00e7imde azaltt\u0131; bunun do\u011frudan nedeni ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki geli\u015fmelerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon dalgas\u0131. SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarda (SOFR: teminatl\u0131 gecelik finansman oran\u0131; ABD\u2019de referans faiz) \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re konumlanmaya y\u00f6nelik f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. MOVE endeksi (tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) izlenmeli; yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131yor: ABD ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Trump \u201cmay\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyene ate\u015f\u201d emri verdi, iki s\u00fcper tanker durduruldu. Petrol 115$ senaryosu enflasyonu %3,8\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; volatilite, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz daha uzun\u201d temas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45463","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45463"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45463\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45463"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45463"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45463"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}