WTI ham petrol\u00fc Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92,55 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %3,28 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemin zirvelerine y\u00fckselen fiyat, \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair beklentilerin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesinin ard\u0131ndan geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Seyyid Abbas Araghchi, Washington ile **dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin** (taraflar\u0131n do\u011frudan masaya oturmay\u0131p arac\u0131 \u00fclkeler\/kanallar \u00fczerinden temas kurmas\u0131) yeni turu i\u00e7in Pakistan\u2019a gidiyor. **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131** kaynakl\u0131 arz riskleri (petrol\u00fcn piyasaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ilgili kesinti riski) s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu riskler; deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda aksama ve aral\u0131kl\u0131 (zaman zaman g\u00f6r\u00fclen) askeri hareketlili\u011fi i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri de fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi **T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi** (hanelerin ekonomik beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket g\u00f6stergesi) nisan ay\u0131nda 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. **Enflasyon beklentileri** (halk\u0131n gelecekte fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) y\u00fckselirken, etkenlerden biri olarak daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
Bu ko\u015fullar, ABD\u2019de gelecekteki petrol talebine y\u00f6nelik daha temkinli bir hava olu\u015fturdu. Jeopolitik riskler s\u00fcrse de zay\u0131flayan g\u00fcven ve talep kayg\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019daki sert geri \u00e7ekilme, piyasada **arz riski** ile **talep kayg\u0131s\u0131** aras\u0131nda klasik bir \u00e7eki\u015fme yarat\u0131yor. Belirsiz ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, piyasadaki huzursuzlu\u011fu art\u0131r\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda net bir y\u00f6n tahminini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ana unsur **oynakl\u0131k** (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) olabilir.<\/p>\n
Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin 49,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi, petrol talebi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir uyar\u0131. Benzer bir durum 2022 ortas\u0131nda endeks 50,0 ile dip yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verilerine g\u00f6re bunu izleyen aylarda ABD benzin talebinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, ekonomide yava\u015flaman\u0131n daha fazla fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yaratmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** al\u0131m\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran hak) veya **ay\u0131 put spreadi** (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle bir put al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir put satarak maliyeti azaltan, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) gibi stratejileri anlaml\u0131 k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 risk g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez; k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i her g\u00fcn bu ge\u00e7itten ge\u00e7iyor. 2019\u2019daki gerilimler gibi \u00f6rnekler, herhangi bir askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa fiyatlar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde s\u0131\u00e7ratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, \u201ctamamen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201d pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00e7ok riskli hale getirir. Korunma amac\u0131yla **zarar durdurma ama\u00e7l\u0131 (hedge) vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money call)** bulundurmak (mevcut fiyattan daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, ucuz ama s\u0131\u00e7ramada de\u011ferlenen opsiyon) mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler varken **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility)** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) 2022\u2019deki jeopolitik \u015foklara benzer \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketi bekleyip y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayanlar i\u00e7in **uzun straddle** (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda call+put al\u0131m\u0131) veya **uzun strangle** (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda call+put al\u0131m\u0131) uygun olabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, arz kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama ya da talep kaynakl\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerden fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak bu fakt\u00f6rlerin birbirini dengeleyece\u011fi ve petrol\u00fcn belli bir bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa, **prim satmak** (opsiyon sat\u0131p prim geliri elde etmek; fiyat beklenen aral\u0131kta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7) daha uygun olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **demir kondor (iron condor)** (belirli bir fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle ayn\u0131 vadede iki spreadin birlikte kurulmas\u0131) WTI\u2019\u0131n jeopolitik destek seviyesi ile ekonomik diren\u00e7 seviyesi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn ise arz riskleriyle bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde desteklendi\u011fi fikrine dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WTI 92,55 dolara gerileyip %3,28 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: ABD-\u0130ran dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme umudu tansiyonu azalt\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz arz riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Michigan g\u00fcveni 49,8\u2019e inince talep kayg\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc, oynakl\u0131k \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}