EUR\/USD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi ve \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Parite 1,1715 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine dokunduktan sonra g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,27 art\u0131da ge\u00e7irdi.<\/p>\n
Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden temas kurulabilece\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu haberler, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan talebi zay\u0131flatt\u0131. CNN, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in Steve Witkoff ve Jared Kushner\u2019\u0131 Pakistan\u2019a g\u00f6nderece\u011fini yazd\u0131. Haberde, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi\u2019nin de Pakistan\u2019a gidece\u011fine dair iddialar yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tasnim, Araghchi\u2019nin sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine y\u00f6nelik Tahran\u2019\u0131n (\u0130ran y\u00f6netimi) de\u011ferlendirmelerini aktaraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. IRNA ise ziyaretin Pakistanl\u0131 yetkililerle ikili (iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda) oldu\u011funu belirtti; bu da ABD ile temaslar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 dolayl\u0131 (do\u011frudan olmayan) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k 98,94\u2019ten 98,56\u2019ya geriledi; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,27 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tahran, mevcut ko\u015fullarda m\u00fczakereyi reddetti ve ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (denizden ge\u00e7i\u015fi k\u0131s\u0131tlayan fiili engelleme) gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD\u2019nin ablukay\u0131 gev\u015fetip gev\u015fetmeyece\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131m at\u0131p atmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. Bo\u011faz, \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 abluka alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor; bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarken enflasyonu (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) yeniden g\u00fcndemin \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta odak Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve ECB\u2019ye (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) d\u00f6necek; her iki kurumun da faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 53,3\u2019ten 49,8\u2019e geriledi. Beklentiler 51,7\u2019den 48,1\u2019e indi. 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,8\u2019den %4,7\u2019ye, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi umutlar\u0131n\u0131n EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,17\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanma (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede keskin ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) haf\u0131zalarda. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve jeopolitik gerilim, bug\u00fcn g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz temkinli merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015funun temelini atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ate\u015fkes alt\u0131nda i\u015flerken, yeni bir s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme tekrar \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) dolara kayd\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeli. Brent petrol (Kuzey Denizi referans petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Kriz d\u00f6nemindeki zirveden gerilemi\u015f olsa da bu seviye, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in enflasyonu \u00f6nemli bir risk olarak canl\u0131 tutuyor. B\u00f6lgede ani bir gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 petrol\u00fc yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu da Fed\u2019i daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutuma iterek piyasada belirgin oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert dalgalanmas\u0131) yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te olu\u015fan ve 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde %4,7\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentileri, Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedenlerinden biri. Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyonun temel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) verisi %3,9 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Bu nedenle Fed, ECB\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha istekli) bir \u00e7izgide duruyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloya ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma d\u00fczeyi) ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki s\u0131\u00e7ramalara k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu, piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik riskleri hafife alabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Paritede vadesi uzun, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fte kazand\u0131ran opsiyonlar) almak; gerilimin beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesi veya Fed\u2019in daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az istekli) bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir pozisyon se\u00e7ene\u011fi olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD, \u0130ran-ABD temas ihtimaliyle dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 1,1715\u2019e y\u00fckselip \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc k\u0131rd\u0131. G\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve petrolde: Brent 95$. Fed-ECB sabit; enflasyon beklentileri ve jeopolitik risk oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}