GBP\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan talebin azalmas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) art\u0131\u015f ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme haberleriyle ili\u015fkilendirildi. \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7 hafta uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 da piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3453 dip seviyesinden toparland\u0131ktan sonra 1,3498\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,24 artt\u0131. Haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi\u2019nin ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in bir teklif sunmas\u0131 ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir heyetle Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucularla (taraflar\u0131 uzla\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc akt\u00f6rler) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri, hanehalk\u0131 g\u00fcveninin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksi Nisan\u2019da Mart\u2019taki 53,3 seviyesinden 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek 1978\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi (\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmini) %3,8\u2019den %4,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,4\u2019ten %3,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 2026\u2019da faiz indirimine gitmesini beklemiyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 gibi oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015flar) \u015eubat\u2019taki %-0,6 sonras\u0131 Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %0,7 artt\u0131; art\u0131\u015fta benzin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 etkili oldu. Man\u015fet Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (genel toplam) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,7 artarak beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi, ancak \u00f6nceki verinin biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta g\u00fcndemde Fed karar\u0131, ABD GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi), Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri (uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlere talebi g\u00f6steren sipari\u015f verisi) ve istihdam verileri yer al\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Teknik seviyeler olarak 1,3516, 1,3411, 1,2986 ve 1,3866 takip ediliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine y\u00f6nelik iyimserlik, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3500 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131, jeopolitik haberler olumlu kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadede s\u00fcrebilecek bir e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu temay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor; dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni bu.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif. Fiyat 1,3411 destek b\u00f6lgesinin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi seviye) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket devam edebilir. Bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 1,3866 diren\u00e7 seviyesine (y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) yakla\u015fan kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 GBP\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) tercih edilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken azami riski (opsiyona \u00f6denen prim) ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD t\u00fcketicisindeki bozulmaya dikkat edilmeli. Michigan endeksinin 49,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi, tarihsel olarak kriz seviyesine i\u015faret ediyor ve Haziran 2022\u2019deki pandemi sonras\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelerin de alt\u0131nda. Bu t\u00fcr k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik zamanla harcamalar\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve ABD ekonomisini zay\u0131flatabilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f g\u00fcven verisi, %4,7 ile y\u00fcksek kalan enflasyon beklentileriyle birlikte Fed\u2019i zor bir konuma sokuyor. 2023\u2019te de benzer \u015fekilde \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen y\u00fcksek enflasyon) Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Enflasyon verileri y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa dolar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 erken olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olumlu olsa da yeni bir trendi garanti etmiyor. 2025 boyunca verilerde sert dalgalanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; yak\u0131t sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi tek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri, kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye kan\u0131t say\u0131lmaz. Sterlin y\u00fckseli\u015fi daha \u00e7ok dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Fed ve BoE\u2019nin gelecek hafta faiz kararlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalabilir. GBP\/USD\u2019deki mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi, Fed\u2019den \u015fahin (faiz indirimi yerine s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fa yak\u0131n) bir mesaj gelmesi veya BoE\u2019nin beklenenden daha temkinli bir ton kullanmas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nebilir. Bu nedenle, ucuz ve paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money put; mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, ani duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge; riski dengeleme) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar, dolar talebindeki zay\u0131flama ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla 1,3500\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme beklentisi desteklerken, ABD t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc; Fed-BoE kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k ve opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45457\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}