TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) nisan ay\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu\u2019nda daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, Brent petrol i\u00e7in 90 dolar, WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) i\u00e7in 85 dolar seviyelerine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, \u00f6nceki WTI baz varsay\u0131m\u0131 olan 55 dolara g\u00f6re belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
90\/85 dolarl\u0131k varsay\u0131m\u0131n, 28 Ocak\u2019tan bu yana petrol fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. TD Securities, kendi baz senaryosunda da WTI\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyrekte 92 dolar, y\u0131l sonunda ise 85 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kurum, daha y\u00fcksek petrol varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n Banka\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) 2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde %3\u2019e yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 2027 sonuna do\u011fru yeniden %2\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemlerin etkisi azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) tahminlerinde ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 revizyon bekleniyor. Nisan raporunda, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini inceleyen ayr\u0131 bir kutu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yer alabilir.<\/p>\n
AI (yapay zek\u00e2) arac\u0131yla \u00fcretilen ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilen bu de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re, yakla\u015fan BoC raporunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek al\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor; WTI varsay\u0131m\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 85 dolara y\u00fckselebilir. Bu art\u0131\u015f, enerji piyasalar\u0131nda y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana olu\u015fan fiyat seviyelerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcncellenen ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde ana belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, enflasyon tahmininin y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilir; man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte %3\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev piyasalar (vadeli i\u015flem ve swap gibi fiyatlardan beklenti \u00fcreten piyasalar) yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Gecelik faiz swaplar\u0131 (politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentiyi yans\u0131tan k\u0131sa vadeli swap s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) temmuzda indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na fiyatl\u0131yor. Mart enflasyonunun %2,6 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, Banka\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede gev\u015feme sinyali vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Kanada dolar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndaki merkez bankas\u0131, para birimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir dayanak olu\u015fturuyor. WTI, ocak sonundan bu yana ortalama 84 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederek Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. BoC raporunu izleyen haftalarda USD\/CAD\u2019nin (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kanada dolar\u0131 kuru) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri test edebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu ve 2027\u2019ye kadar %2 hedefine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclse de, k\u0131sa vadeli para politikas\u0131 patikas\u0131 belirleyici olacak. Bu, getiri e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerde faizlerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu e\u011fri) k\u0131sa taraf\u0131n\u0131n yatay ya da yukar\u0131 e\u011fimli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryolardan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Banka\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin bekleyi\u015f\u201d (faizi indirmeyen ve s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu koruyan) tutumuna kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Bankers\u2019 Acceptance vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (BAX; Kanada\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisine duyarl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem) sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019deki emtia fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131nda BoC\u2019nin enflasyon beklentilerini kontrol etmek i\u00e7in kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbe, enerji kaynakl\u0131 yeni bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimi beklenmemesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00f6rnek, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Raporun, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 Kanada b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in net bir art\u0131 olarak sunmas\u0131 ve faiz indirimi aciliyetini azaltmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ekonomideki bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, Banka\u2019ya daha fazla veri beklemek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde yeni \u00e7\u0131ta: BoC raporunda Brent 90$, WTI 85$ varsay\u0131m\u0131 masada. TD, enflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 kayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yaz indirimi ihtimalinin zay\u0131flay\u0131p CAD\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45450\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}