\u0130ngiltere\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar martta %0,7 artt\u0131 ve beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana nedeni, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 fiyatlar y\u00fckselince akaryak\u0131t al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki di\u011fer \u0130ngiltere verileri yap\u0131c\u0131yd\u0131; ancak \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Decision Maker Panel (Karar Verici Paneli: \u015firket y\u00f6neticileriyle yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenli anket) ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Enflasyon beklentileri (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekte fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi) bir miktar y\u00fckselerek %4\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve 2023 sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede GBP\/USD fiyat hareketi (sterlin\/dolar paritesi: 1 sterlinin ka\u00e7 dolar etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterir) n\u00f6tr ile y\u00fckseli\u015f aras\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirildi. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i grafikte \u201cmorning star\u201d (sabah y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilen, y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden \u00fc\u00e7 mumlu formasyon) taban modeli mevcut momentumu (fiyat\u0131n mevcut y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmesi) destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nemli destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunabilece\u011fi seviye) 1,3450\/60 band\u0131 olarak verildi. Parite 1,3495\/00 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, sonraki seviye 1,3555 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin taraf\u0131nda \u015fu anda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo var. Son perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi %0,7 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; ancak daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketim verisi ile zay\u0131f i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 beklentisi aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon beklentileri belirleyici bir unsur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2023 sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen \u015fekilde %4\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum, b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f olsa bile BoE \u00fczerinde dikkatli kalma bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son resmi T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisi de bu e\u011filimi teyit etti: %3,1 ile piyasan\u0131n %2,9 beklentisinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloda opsiyonlarda (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar\/ belirli tarihte, belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyeli de\u011ferlendirip riski y\u00f6netme f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 1,3500 ve 1,3550 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda bir \u201cbull call spread\u201d (bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedeflerken, fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmemesi halinde azami zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bu strateji, grafikte 1,3450 civar\u0131nda taban olu\u015fumu (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 dip yap\u0131p dengelenmesi) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi izlenmeli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin tonu (\u015fahin: faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) GBP\/USD i\u00e7in bir \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olu\u015fturuyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporu (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam: ay i\u00e7inde ka\u00e7 yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) 215 bin yeni i\u015fe i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerinin daha da gecikebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131, sterlinde sert bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yerine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki benzer bir d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hizmet verileri (hizmet PMI gibi, sekt\u00f6rdeki faaliyeti \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergeler) zay\u0131f sanayi \u00fcretimi (fabrikalar\u0131n \u00fcretim miktar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim) ile dengelenmi\u015f, bunun sonucunda haftalarca dalgal\u0131 ve bant i\u00e7inde (range-bound: belirli destek\/diren\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda gidip gelen) bir seyir g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu deneyim, \u015fu a\u015famada k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout: fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nemli seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fcne\/alt\u0131na ge\u00e7mesi) beklentisini fazla agresif kovalamamak gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde de\u011fi\u015fim i\u00e7in izlenmesi gereken kritik teknik destek 1,3450.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz %0,7\u2019lik mart perakende sat\u0131\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sterline nefes ald\u0131rd\u0131; akaryak\u0131t al\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015fesi ve %4\u2019e dayanan beklentiler BoE\u2019yi zorluyor. GBP\/USD 1,3450 destek, 1,3555 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45449\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}