Nisan\u2019da ABD Michigan \u00dcniversitesi (UoM) 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentisi %3,5 oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, piyasadaki %3,4 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Rapor, enflasyonun beklenenden daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimine gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda **\u015fahin** (yani enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) bir duru\u015f sergilemesi beklenebilir. Bu durum, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklenen faiz indirimlerine ili\u015fkin hesab\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, **faiz t\u00fcrevleri**ne (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bak\u0131yoruz; ama\u00e7, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak. Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli **SOFR vadeli i\u015flem** s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde (SOFR: bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik faiz yerine kullan\u0131lan ABD gecelik referans faizi; vadeli i\u015flem: gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dair al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kontrat\u0131) **ima edilen getiri** (s\u00f6zle\u015fmenin fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi faiz oran\u0131) birka\u00e7 **baz puan** (1 baz puan = %0,01) y\u00fckseldi. Piyasa art\u0131k bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r fiyatl\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yak\u0131n vadede **parasal gev\u015feme** (faiz indirimleri ve daha bol likidite) ihtimalinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri i\u00e7in bu ortam olumsuz. \u00d6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve teknoloji hisseleri, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131nda daha fazla bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in Nasdaq 100 (NDX) \u00fczerinde **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. (Put opsiyonu, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.) 2022-2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: faiz beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015f, hisse de\u011ferlemelerini d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 muhtemel. **VIX endeksi** (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 15 civar\u0131ndaki sakin seviyelerden bu haberle 17\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. **VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call)** al\u0131m\u0131nda f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. (Call opsiyonu, belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 verir; VIX y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanabilir.) Bu beklentiler, S&P 500\u2019de daha geni\u015f fiyat dalgalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon sinyali piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: UoM 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalmas\u0131yla 2026 indirimleri \u00f6teleniyor; SOFR getirileri y\u00fckseliyor, Nasdaq put ve VIX call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45442"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45442\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}