Bir Reuters anketi, 85 ekonomistin 84\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda **mevduat faizini** (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) **%2\u2019de** b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu sonu\u00e7, k\u0131sa vadede de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn geni\u015f kabul g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha sonraki toplant\u0131lar i\u00e7in ise 85 ekonomistin 44\u2019\u00fc, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n **haziran** kadar erken bir tarihte **%2,25\u2019e** \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Mart sonunda yap\u0131lan ankette, 60 ekonomistin 38\u2019i **2026 boyunca de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyordu**.<\/p>\n
Daha ileriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 85 ekonomistin 50\u2019si bu y\u0131l **en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131** bekliyor; \u00f6nceki ankette bu say\u0131 60\u2019ta 21\u2019di. Bu, \u00f6nceye k\u0131yasla **daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131** (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rma veya y\u00fcksek tutma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) beklentisine kay\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Anket, bu de\u011fi\u015fimleri **Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne** ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re ECB, yak\u0131n vadede faizi sabit tutabilir; ancak enflasyon y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa ileride de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapma alan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda bir sonraki toplant\u0131da ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizini sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ortak bir beklenti olu\u015fuyor. Ancak bu sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131. Eurostat verileri, man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) **Mart 2026\u2019da %2,6\u2019da** inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, ECB \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeniden fiyatlan\u0131yor; bu da bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. **ESTR (Euro Short-Term Rate) vadeli piyasa** (ECB\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadeli faizinin gelecekteki seviyesine dair fiyatlar\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011fu piyasa), **Temmuz 2026** toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 **%70\u2019in \u00fczerinde** fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu, birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama. Yani bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in \u201csabitleme\u201d beklense de piyasa k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde **daha \u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc giderek daha h\u0131zl\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu artan belirsizlik, **k\u0131sa vadeli faizlere dayal\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131** daha cazip hale getiriyor. **Euribor vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 muhtemel; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cfaizi sabit tutma m\u0131, art\u0131rma m\u0131?\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sertle\u015fiyor. Opsiyon almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda merkez bankas\u0131ndan s\u00fcrpriz bir ad\u0131m gelmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 **zarar\u0131 \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131** bir \u015fekilde pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Faizlerin vadeli tarafta daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlar da de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Buna, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerine y\u00f6nelik **Euribor vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini satmak** (faiz y\u00fckselirse bu pozisyon genelde de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) veya **pay-fixed faiz swap\u0131** yapmak (faizin sabit k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyip de\u011fi\u015fken faizi almak; faizler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde genelde avantaj sa\u011flar) dahil olabilir. E\u011filim, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen **g\u00fcvercin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha mesafeli) duru\u015ftan belirgin bi\u00e7imde uzakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 beklenti de\u011fi\u015fimi, ECB\u2019nin art\u0131k g\u00f6rmezden gelemeyece\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda **\u015fahin ifadeler** kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, bu yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 bekleyen pozisyonlar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcnen ECB cephesinde f\u0131rt\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor: Reuters anketi nisan\u2019da mevduat faizinin %2\u2019de kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak haziran-temmuz 2026\u2019ya dek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yeniden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131, \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ve opsiyon\/swap f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}