Commerzbank analistleri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir sonraki toplant\u0131da politika faizini (federal fonlar hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) %3,50\u2013%3,75 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez \u201cpas\u201d ge\u00e7mesini bekliyor. Bu beklenti, enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ile petrol kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Analistler, enflasyonun be\u015f y\u0131ld\u0131r hedefin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u201cenflasyon beklentilerinin\u201d (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki enflasyona dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri) eskisi kadar sa\u011flam \u015fekilde \u201c\u00e7apalanmam\u0131\u015f\u201d (kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde hedefe ba\u011fl\u0131 kalm\u0131yor) olabilece\u011fini not ediyor.<\/p>\n
Analistler, mevcut ortamda Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz indirimi, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde siyasi bask\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekilse de, ana senaryo toplant\u0131da de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131.<\/p>\n
En fazla, Vali Miran\u2019\u0131n faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanabilece\u011fini ekliyorlar. Buna ra\u011fmen, beklenen sonu\u00e7 yine %3,50\u2013%3,75 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analistler, enflasyonun gerilemesi halinde y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru faiz indirimlerinin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zamanla zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar; bunu da ABD\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz indirimlerine ve Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felere ba\u011fl\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerini gere\u011finden h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre sabit kalmas\u0131 durumunda kazand\u0131rabilecek SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama oran\u0131na dayal\u0131 faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarla (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ile politikan\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi iste\u011fi aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde dar bantta hareket riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor; 2025\u2019te Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran ile sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesi fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse de WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi referans ham petrol) h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek ve 85 dolar civar\u0131nda. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131 \u201c\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu\u201d (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) beslemeye devam ediyor ve Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015funu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 2025\u2019te 105 seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrederken, sonras\u0131nda 98 civar\u0131na geriledi. Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleri veya opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden dolarda ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alma fikrini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in enflasyon beklentilerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma ihtiyac\u0131 ile daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gev\u015feme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadede piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar veya belirsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan i\u015flemler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin VIX endeksi (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u00fczerindeki al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131).<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed yine \u201cpas\u201d m\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek? Commerzbank, faizlerin %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131; inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon, petrol bask\u0131s\u0131 ve beklenti \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 riskleri nedeniyle \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor, dolar zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45439\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}