G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015feleri, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu durum, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi beklentisini de destekledi.<\/p>\n
XAG\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 73,95 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 75,52 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve bu hafta %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde geriledi. Bask\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131, y\u00fcksek seyreden ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri (devlet tahvilinin faizi) ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda artan gerilim nedeniyle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA: fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) olan 78 dolar\u0131n ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 79 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadede zay\u0131f (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. Bu seviyeler son tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 62 dolarda ve mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Bu b\u00f6lge daha geni\u015f bir destek alan\u0131 olarak izleniyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 47 seviyesinde ve 50\u2019nin biraz alt\u0131nda. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) histogram\u0131 hafif art\u0131da olsa da fiyat k\u0131sa ve orta vadeli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a yukar\u0131 potansiyel s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 78 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 79 dolar seviyesi geliyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu seviyelerin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir. Destek 75-74 dolar band\u0131nda izleniyor; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda 62 dolara do\u011fru risk artabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riski daha bask\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f do\u011frudan enflasyon endi\u015fesini art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu ortam, faiz geliri \u00fcretmeyen (kupon\/faiz kazand\u0131rmayan) bir varl\u0131k olan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi yakalamas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler de temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri (t\u00fcretilmi\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcnler: opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler gibi) daha cazip hale getiriyor. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,8 ile beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu tablo, enflasyonun Fed hedefi olan %2\u2019ye h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nmesi umudunu zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,75\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, bu da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in belirgin bir olumsuz unsur olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Taktik a\u00e7\u0131dan 78 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, sat\u0131\u015f (k\u0131sa pozisyon: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) i\u00e7in kritik bir e\u015fik olarak izleniyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonda belirlenen al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirebilir veya 78-79 dolar tavan\u0131 alt\u0131nda yatay seyre oynayan ay\u0131 call spread (bear call spread: \u00fcst seviyeden call sat\u0131p daha yukar\u0131dan call alarak kurulan, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejisi) stratejisi uygulayabilir. K\u0131sa vadede odak, 74 dolar ara deste\u011finin (pivot: k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n i\u00e7in kritik seviye) k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p k\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
74 dolar deste\u011finin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret edebilir ve hareketi 62 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamaya h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. 2025 boyunca da benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizler, de\u011ferli metallerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f fiyat davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli bir deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131zlanabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f olsa da 62 dolar civar\u0131ndaki uzun vadeli destek g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli; buras\u0131 teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban. 2026 ba\u015f\u0131na ait sekt\u00f6r verileri, sanayi ve temiz enerji (ye\u015fil enerji) kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep nedeniyle arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fcretimin talebi kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle \u015fu a\u015famada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131ksa da k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin \u015fekilde bozulmad\u0131k\u00e7a sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: XAG\/USD 75,5 dolar civar\u0131nda, haftal\u0131k %5+ d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, y\u00fcksek tahvil faizleri ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon\/Fed endi\u015fesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 78\u201379 diren\u00e7, 74 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 62 riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45437\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}